Comments on: Let Prediction Markets Fight Terrorism. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/ Prediction Markets For All Fri, 21 Nov 2008 22:43:36 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: The CFTC is going to close the comments in 6 days. We have 6 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Ins http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19831 The CFTC is going to close the comments in 6 days. We have 6 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Ins Tue, 01 Jul 2008 14:01:33 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19831 [...] - Tom W. Bell’s libertarian take. [...] [...] - Tom W. Bell’s libertarian take. [...]

]]> By: The CFTC is going to close the comments in 7 days. We have 7 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Ins http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19703 The CFTC is going to close the comments in 7 days. We have 7 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Ins Mon, 30 Jun 2008 07:55:19 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19703 [...] - Tom W. Bell’s libertarian take. [...] [...] - Tom W. Bell’s libertarian take. [...]

]]> By: The CFTC is going to close the comments in 9 days. We have 9 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Ins http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19611 The CFTC is going to close the comments in 9 days. We have 9 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Ins Sat, 28 Jun 2008 19:51:12 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19611 [...] - Tom W. Bell’s libertarian take. [...] [...] - Tom W. Bell’s libertarian take. [...]

]]> By: A draft response to the CFTC | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19492 A draft response to the CFTC | Midas Oracle .ORG Wed, 25 Jun 2008 12:43:28 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19492 [...] Tom believes that the CFTC should not forbid trading in these claims because they would offer thin and traceable trading. Perhaps part of my difference with him is in these assumptions; I don’t believe the CFTC should be regulating event marketplaces so tightly that trading would be 100% traceable. To do so would force exchanges to verify customers identities and take other steps that I personally believe are too burdensome in a regulatory sense. [...] [...] Tom believes that the CFTC should not forbid trading in these claims because they would offer thin and traceable trading. Perhaps part of my difference with him is in these assumptions; I don’t believe the CFTC should be regulating event marketplaces so tightly that trading would be 100% traceable. To do so would force exchanges to verify customers identities and take other steps that I personally believe are too burdensome in a regulatory sense. [...]

]]> By: 2 betting blogs to check… if you are in Great Britain… | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19453 2 betting blogs to check… if you are in Great Britain… | Midas Oracle .ORG Tue, 24 Jun 2008 09:17:09 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19453 [...] The fellow left a comment on Tom W. Bell’s post. [...] [...] The fellow left a comment on Tom W. Bell’s post. [...]

]]> By: Matt http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19448 Matt Tue, 24 Jun 2008 08:18:10 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19448 I'm agreeing with Ed on this one.  There's every possibility these markets can grow to be massive, never assume liquidity will be thin with these things, if there is an 'opportunity' then unsurprisingly liquidity has a habit of arriving.  More so when some of the participants know they can change the result. - I'm having a hard time deciding on what scale I would be in favour of this and my gut feeling is strictly on an international level... 'wars' rather than terrorist attacks.  I do have a hard time with Jed's post above, where he talks only about criminal acts under US law ?!  These markets are on the internet...the World is a much smaller place these days, allowing markets on a certain scale (by "scale" i'm talking assassinations vs bomb vs larger scale terror attack vs war etc) on one country's 'future' and not on another is unacceptable.  I very strongly disagree with Jed here - "It also WOULD allow for event contracts on terrorist attacks and assassinations that did NOT take place in the United States (as no United States laws would be broken)."  Personally I think that would be outrageous.  Markets are markets, they exist everywhere and are accessable everywhere by anyone (there's always a way)...where there is money involved, people will always find their edge, anywhere in the World. - By doing things on an international scale you remove almost all risk of the market creating the event, unless liquidity is so high that governments begin to get interested in investing.. highly unlikely.  You would also get a much more accurate reflection of sentiment from large samples of people worldwide, who, individually cannot have an impact on the outcome. I’m agreeing with Ed on this one.  There’s every possibility these markets can grow to be massive, never assume liquidity will be thin with these things, if there is an ‘opportunity’ then unsurprisingly liquidity has a habit of arriving.  More so when some of the participants know they can change the result.
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I’m having a hard time deciding on what scale I would be in favour of this and my gut feeling is strictly on an international level… ‘wars’ rather than terrorist attacks.  I do have a hard time with Jed’s post above, where he talks only about criminal acts under US law ?!  These markets are on the internet…the World is a much smaller place these days, allowing markets on a certain scale (by “scale” i’m talking assassinations vs bomb vs larger scale terror attack vs war etc) on one country’s ‘future’ and not on another is unacceptable.  I very strongly disagree with Jed here - “It also WOULD allow for event contracts on terrorist attacks and assassinations that did NOT take place in the United States (as no United States laws would be broken).”  Personally I think that would be outrageous.  Markets are markets, they exist everywhere and are accessable everywhere by anyone (there’s always a way)…where there is money involved, people will always find their edge, anywhere in the World.
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By doing things on an international scale you remove almost all risk of the market creating the event, unless liquidity is so high that governments begin to get interested in investing.. highly unlikely.  You would also get a much more accurate reflection of sentiment from large samples of people worldwide, who, individually cannot have an impact on the outcome.

]]> By: Ed Murray http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19442 Ed Murray Mon, 23 Jun 2008 22:12:03 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19442 Q) Is the market at all times independent from the participants/runners in the market? - If "Yes" then the market can be offered.  If "no" then the market should never be offered.  Q) Is the market at all times independent from the participants/runners in the market?
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If “Yes” then the market can be offered.  If “no” then the market should never be offered. 

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19441 Medemi Mon, 23 Jun 2008 22:04:23 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19441 The whole question posed by the CFTC is irrelevant. Tom Bell read it well IMO, they want to know (are looking for excuses) whether those markets should be offered or not. But that question shouldn't be asked NOW. - I've said before that we should take this step by step, and that means that we certainly shouldn't offer markets involving terrorism now. That also means we shouldn't rule it out. What's first on the agenda is the fight against insider trading and market manipulation, and it will be one hell of a fight. Once you get that under control, you could have another look around. - To the question "are markets involving terrorism socially acceptable", in general, I'd have to answer "yes" because it concerns us all. But again, whether they should be offered or not, is a question to be asked a couple of years from now, when market participants have gained a lot of experience and are better capable making the right decisions. But we can't rule it out, because we don't know how effective we'll be in solving other, crucial problems. - And I would like to reiterate that restrictions on fresh accounts could be extremely effective against insiders, but also against evil-doers.  The whole question posed by the CFTC is irrelevant.
Tom Bell read it well IMO, they want to know (are looking for excuses) whether those markets should be offered or not. But that question shouldn’t be asked NOW.
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I’ve said before that we should take this step by step, and that means that we certainly shouldn’t offer markets involving terrorism now. That also means we shouldn’t rule it out. What’s first on the agenda is the fight against insider trading and market manipulation, and it will be one hell of a fight.
Once you get that under control, you could have another look around.
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To the question “are markets involving terrorism socially acceptable”, in general, I’d have to answer “yes” because it concerns us all. But again, whether they should be offered or not, is a question to be asked a couple of years from now, when market participants have gained a lot of experience and are better capable making the right decisions. But we can’t rule it out, because we don’t know how effective we’ll be in solving other, crucial problems.
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And I would like to reiterate that restrictions on fresh accounts could be extremely effective against insiders, but also against evil-doers. 

]]> By: Ed Murray http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19440 Ed Murray Mon, 23 Jun 2008 21:47:40 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19440 <em>Because event markets would offer only relatively thin and traceable trading, they would not offer an attractive investment option to anybody planning to profit from wrongdoing. - </em>I find that a huge assumption.  In the UK we see money attracted to various bizarre markets over recent years, such as what colour a page 3 girls hair will be the next day on flutter, spread bets on the number of sips of water that the chancellor of the exchequer will take during his budget speeches with most spread firms, and millions of pounds going on really petty things like who will be the next manager of non-leading british clubs, like sunderland, southampton, leeds, portsmouth etcetera.  - What if the market grew?  What if the next Lee Harvey Oswald saw a chance to place contracts which would pay out money to his relatives after he had assassinated his victim?  JFK, John Lennon, Yitzhak Rabin (?) were all assassinated, and a meaty prediction market with healthy trading volumes, could prove a huge incentive to actually assassinate say another big pop star.  It would be morally wrong if somebody could place huge bets that Ginger Spice would be assassinated, and then they themselves pulled the trigger to ensure payout of the contract.  How would the world cope if Ginger Spice or Posh Spice were bumped off?  It would be like Princess Diana all over again.  - Because event markets would offer only relatively thin and traceable trading, they would not offer an attractive investment option to anybody planning to profit from wrongdoing.
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I find that a huge assumption.  In the UK we see money attracted to various bizarre markets over recent years, such as what colour a page 3 girls hair will be the next day on flutter, spread bets on the number of sips of water that the chancellor of the exchequer will take during his budget speeches with most spread firms, and millions of pounds going on really petty things like who will be the next manager of non-leading british clubs, like sunderland, southampton, leeds, portsmouth etcetera. 
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What if the market grew?  What if the next Lee Harvey Oswald saw a chance to place contracts which would pay out money to his relatives after he had assassinated his victim?  JFK, John Lennon, Yitzhak Rabin (?) were all assassinated, and a meaty prediction market with healthy trading volumes, could prove a huge incentive to actually assassinate say another big pop star.  It would be morally wrong if somebody could place huge bets that Ginger Spice would be assassinated, and then they themselves pulled the trigger to ensure payout of the contract.  How would the world cope if Ginger Spice or Posh Spice were bumped off?  It would be like Princess Diana all over again. 
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]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19439 Chris F. Masse Mon, 23 Jun 2008 21:43:44 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/23/let-prediction-markets-fight-terrorism/#comment-19439 @Ed Murray: "A prediction market should never have the ability to lead events." - I agree with that. @Ed Murray: “A prediction market should never have the ability to lead events.”
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I agree with that.

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