Comments on: POLLS VERSUS PREDICTION MARKETS: Justin Wolfers retorts to Bob Erikson. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/09/polls-versus-prediction-markets/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/09/polls-versus-prediction-markets/#comment-23398 Chris F. Masse Wed, 18 Feb 2009 11:41:53 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7199#comment-23398 The truth about prediction markets http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/14/the-truth-about-prediction-markets/ The truth about prediction markets
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/14/the-truth-about-prediction-markets/

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/09/polls-versus-prediction-markets/#comment-22208 Medemi Tue, 21 Oct 2008 19:05:19 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7199#comment-22208 <em>"In terms of your question as to whether markets include info not in polls, I think you are right to infer that a lot of what markets are doing is following polls." </em> That's not entirely true. You should have a look at the Eurovision songcontest market. There's a massive discrepancy between the polls and the prediction markets. There's a strong correlation between the two, usually, but no causation, in strong real money markets. the reason why people think there is a strong causation, is because there usually are not a lot of significant events which can influence the outcome. If there are.... you'll be able to see that there is no causation. My statement is much stronger than it should be, for a reason. “In terms of your question as to whether markets include info not in polls, I think you are right to infer that a lot of what markets are doing is following polls.”

That’s not entirely true. You should have a look at the Eurovision songcontest market. There’s a massive discrepancy between the polls and the prediction markets. There’s a strong correlation between the two, usually, but no causation, in strong real money markets. the reason why people think there is a strong causation, is because there usually are not a lot of significant events which can influence the outcome. If there are…. you’ll be able to see that there is no causation. My statement is much stronger than it should be, for a reason.

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/09/polls-versus-prediction-markets/#comment-22207 Medemi Tue, 21 Oct 2008 18:54:28 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7199#comment-22207 <em>"I think that the strongest evidence for prediction market efficiency comes from sports betting markets. There’s a ton of data out there..."</em> Yes. <em>"...and while there are some smallish anomalies (including the favorite-longshot bias)"</em> There is no favorite-longshot bias, there hasn't been as early as 2003, possibly (likely) earlier than that. We could always compare results. My data set consists of close to 3000 matches. :-D <em>"...the evidence in favor of the performance of markets v. experts is really very strong there."</em> Which begs the question, why do we need expert opinions ? “I think that the strongest evidence for prediction market efficiency comes from sports betting markets. There’s a ton of data out there…”

Yes.

“…and while there are some smallish anomalies (including the favorite-longshot bias)”

There is no favorite-longshot bias, there hasn’t been as early as 2003, possibly (likely) earlier than that.
We could always compare results. My data set consists of close to 3000 matches. :-D

“…the evidence in favor of the performance of markets v. experts is really very strong there.”

Which begs the question, why do we need expert opinions ?

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/09/polls-versus-prediction-markets/#comment-22201 Chris F. Masse Tue, 21 Oct 2008 10:31:56 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7199#comment-22201 Good post: http://www.scsuscholars.com/2008/10/oversimplifying-intrade.html Good post:
http://www.scsuscholars.com/2008/10/oversimplifying-intrade.html

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/09/polls-versus-prediction-markets/#comment-21539 Chris F. Masse Mon, 08 Sep 2008 19:54:43 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7199#comment-21539 <h3 class="post-title entry-title">What's the deal with Hillary on Intrade?</h3> http://joshbarro.blogspot.com/2008/09/whats-deal-with-hillary-on-intrade.html What’s the deal with Hillary on Intrade?

http://joshbarro.blogspot.com/2008/09/whats-deal-with-hillary-on-intrade.html

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/09/polls-versus-prediction-markets/#comment-21537 Chris F. Masse Mon, 08 Sep 2008 18:43:35 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7199#comment-21537 <strong></strong><strong><span class="row-title">State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/state-polls-electoral-college-prediction-markets/</span></strong> State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets
http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/03/state-polls-electoral-college-prediction-markets/

]]> By: Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. — And, adding salt to injury, they ca http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/09/polls-versus-prediction-markets/#comment-19170 Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. — And, adding salt to injury, they ca Mon, 09 Jun 2008 20:26:02 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7199#comment-19170 [...] Site Map Do the media avoid reporting the bad omens that is sometimes reflected in the prediction markets? POLLS VERSUS PREDICTION MARKETS: Justin Wolfers retorts to Bob Erikson. [...] [...] Site Map Do the media avoid reporting the bad omens that is sometimes reflected in the prediction markets? POLLS VERSUS PREDICTION MARKETS: Justin Wolfers retorts to Bob Erikson. [...]

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