Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Prices or Probabilities?

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Probabilities

… and then… Prices.

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Talk first probabilities… because people interested in news get the concept and vocabulary.

Then, later on, when only the bettors and traders stay with you for the rest of the conversation, talk prices.

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BetFair’s Mark Davies croaked in French about “les prix des paris” (the prices of the bets) to 1.6 million frogs, on French TV, last Sunday.

I’m persuaded the frogs didn’t get the first clue about what he meant.

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It shows, once again, that BetFair is a laggard when it comes to adopting the prediction market approach.

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