Comments on: JASON RUSPINI’S CROCKERY: The Brain states forcefully that they are not “event futures”, but “binary options”. Still, as soon as he premieres prediction markets on tax rates at InTrade, he calls them “tax futures” —of course. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/27/jason-ruspini-crockery/ Prediction Markets For All Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:11:49 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/27/jason-ruspini-crockery/#comment-18919 Chris F. Masse Wed, 28 May 2008 06:11:05 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7058#comment-18919 @Jason Ruspini: Typical excuses. Do as Bo Cowgill did, release the video, if you're a real man. @Jason Ruspini: Typical excuses. Do as Bo Cowgill did, release the video, if you’re a real man.

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/27/jason-ruspini-crockery/#comment-18917 Jason Ruspini Tue, 27 May 2008 22:54:44 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7058#comment-18917 What you are looking at is a bunch of bullet points for a talk.  It took an hour to get through half of the presentation so there was a lot of context that you didn't see, and context is the reason why I choose certain terms or stress different ideas at certain times.Justin Wolfers wasn't making an assertion about Giuliani. It was just an example for a general comment about interpreting implied conditional probabilities.I was referring to at least one of Robin Hanson's papers, but did mention other mitigating factors, and CFTC regulation would be one. What you are looking at is a bunch of bullet points for a talk.  It took an hour to get through half of the presentation so there was a lot of context that you didn’t see, and context is the reason why I choose certain terms or stress different ideas at certain times.Justin Wolfers wasn’t making an assertion about Giuliani. It was just an example for a general comment about interpreting implied conditional probabilities.I was referring to at least one of Robin Hanson’s papers, but did mention other mitigating factors, and CFTC regulation would be one.

]]>