Comments on: We could use a US Gambling And Betting Commission, but the best would be to have prediction exchanges (modeled after BetFair) that alert the sports bodies about any suspicions. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/24/sports-insider-trading/ Prediction Markets For All Wed, 07 Jan 2009 20:04:08 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/24/sports-insider-trading/#comment-19095 Chris F. Masse Fri, 06 Jun 2008 09:48:26 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6994#comment-19095 @Medemi: That's OK. - I thought it was from a newspaper or magazine. @Medemi: That’s OK.
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I thought it was from a newspaper or magazine.

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/24/sports-insider-trading/#comment-19094 Medemi Fri, 06 Jun 2008 09:06:55 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6994#comment-19094 Chris, - I quoted a post from the WBX forum (public domain). If anyone has a problem with it they should contact Cold Dog (chief moderator at WBX). :-D - <a href="http://forum.wbx.com/viewtopic.php?t=33362" rel="nofollow">http://forum.wbx.com/viewtopic.php?t=33362</a> Chris,
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I quoted a post from the WBX forum (public domain). If anyone has a problem with it they should contact Cold Dog (chief moderator at WBX). :-D
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http://forum.wbx.com/viewtopic.php?t=33362

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/24/sports-insider-trading/#comment-19090 Chris F. Masse Fri, 06 Jun 2008 08:09:58 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6994#comment-19090 @Medemi: 1. Where is the link? 2. Be careful of not stealing a publication's copyright. @Medemi:
1. Where is the link?
2. Be careful of not stealing a publication’s copyright.

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/24/sports-insider-trading/#comment-19084 Medemi Thu, 05 Jun 2008 21:25:11 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6994#comment-19084 <strong>Bookie cries foul over BBC goal betting</strong> - - <em>Sam Jones The Guardian, Thursday June 5 2008 - Match of the Day is the latest programme to find itself under scrutiny after a bookmaker closed betting on a competition on the BBC's flagship football show after noticing some suspicious punting. - Goal of the Season - in which viewers trying to guess which one of the 10 best goals of the season a panel of Match of the Day presenters will judge the finest - is one of the most popular elements of the show. The winner receives a pair of tickets to a Premiership game. - But Blue Square decided to suspend betting on Tuesday after £10,000 was put on Emmanuel Adebayor's goal against Spurs at White Hart Lane over the course of just four hours. - The company would normally expect to take around £5,000 in a week for a "novelty" bet such as the Goal of the Season. Its suspicions were further aroused when it found that <strong>a host of internet accounts had been opened for the purpose of betting</strong> on the competition. The Arsenal striker's goal had been 9-2 third favourite to win, but odds plummeted to 1-5 after 400 bets were placed on him on Tuesday. - The BBC said it was taking the concerns very seriously. "We are talking to Blue Square and if there's enough evidence we will investigate," said a spokeswoman. - A Blue Square spokesman said: "We're not saying any of the Match of the Day team are responsible, but the market seems to suggest that the goal of the season result has been leaked somewhere." - He said the number of bets placed on Adebayor was comparable to the amount taken on the Champions League final. - "It was crazy. Even when we cut his odds to 1-5, people were still betting on him. In our experience, punters only bet like that when they know the result," he told the Evening Standard.</em> Bookie cries foul over BBC goal betting
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Sam Jones The Guardian, Thursday June 5 2008
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Match of the Day is the latest programme to find itself under scrutiny after a bookmaker closed betting on a competition on the BBC’s flagship football show after noticing some suspicious punting.
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Goal of the Season - in which viewers trying to guess which one of the 10 best goals of the season a panel of Match of the Day presenters will judge the finest - is one of the most popular elements of the show. The winner receives a pair of tickets to a Premiership game.
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But Blue Square decided to suspend betting on Tuesday after £10,000 was put on Emmanuel Adebayor’s goal against Spurs at White Hart Lane over the course of just four hours.
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The company would normally expect to take around £5,000 in a week for a “novelty” bet such as the Goal of the Season. Its suspicions were further aroused when it found that a host of internet accounts had been opened for the purpose of betting on the competition. The Arsenal striker’s goal had been 9-2 third favourite to win, but odds plummeted to 1-5 after 400 bets were placed on him on Tuesday.
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The BBC said it was taking the concerns very seriously. “We are talking to Blue Square and if there’s enough evidence we will investigate,” said a spokeswoman.
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A Blue Square spokesman said: “We’re not saying any of the Match of the Day team are responsible, but the market seems to suggest that the goal of the season result has been leaked somewhere.”
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He said the number of bets placed on Adebayor was comparable to the amount taken on the Champions League final.
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“It was crazy. Even when we cut his odds to 1-5, people were still betting on him. In our experience, punters only bet like that when they know the result,” he told the Evening Standard.

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/24/sports-insider-trading/#comment-19078 Medemi Thu, 05 Jun 2008 18:59:52 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6994#comment-19078 Ed, - interesting comment, because I'm only interested in solutions which are - efficient - effective - and sustainable - <em>Medemi- restricting brand new accounts is the way forward initially, but in the long run this will fail as well, because the subset of people who are putting liquidity into the gambling markets, will inevitably start to overlap with the subset of people who can influence the outcomes of sporting contests. </em>- The best we can ask for is to prevent an explosion of insider trading and keep it contained (with minimal effort and costs). My primary target group are the potential insiders. Those who get hold of inside information on occasion or accidentally, and sports men and women playing a match with little or nothing to play for. This group does not have an account with any bookmaker (and account for at least 99% of the world's population), and I want to remove the opportunity for them to make a lot of money by rebalancing the risk reward ratio so that every one of them will make the right decision and refrain from insider trading. - For the die hard cheats out there, you may have a point Ed. But they are still going to have to invest a lot of time (maybe even money) to make a killing financially, dependent on how it is implemented of course, which is a different discussion. - <em>In the long run, betting has to be as close to fair as possible, and in the end, a human judgement call will have to be made to turn down certain types of accounts/betting behaviour.</em> - One does not exclude the other, but I would say this type of activity would be limited when the primary solution (ours) is the right one. So I would say, overall, it is a sustainable strategy when dealing with insiders. Ed,
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interesting comment, because I’m only interested in solutions which are
- efficient
- effective
- and sustainable
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Medemi- restricting brand new accounts is the way forward initially, but in the long run this will fail as well, because the subset of people who are putting liquidity into the gambling markets, will inevitably start to overlap with the subset of people who can influence the outcomes of sporting contests.
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The best we can ask for is to prevent an explosion of insider trading and keep it contained (with minimal effort and costs).
My primary target group are the potential insiders. Those who get hold of inside information on occasion or accidentally, and sports men and women playing a match with little or nothing to play for.
This group does not have an account with any bookmaker (and account for at least 99% of the world’s population), and I want to remove the opportunity for them to make a lot of money by rebalancing the risk reward ratio so that every one of them will make the right decision and refrain from insider trading.
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For the die hard cheats out there, you may have a point Ed. But they are still going to have to invest a lot of time (maybe even money) to make a killing financially, dependent on how it is implemented of course, which is a different discussion.
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In the long run, betting has to be as close to fair as possible, and in the end, a human judgement call will have to be made to turn down certain types of accounts/betting behaviour.
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One does not exclude the other, but I would say this type of activity would be limited when the primary solution (ours) is the right one.
So I would say, overall, it is a sustainable strategy when dealing with insiders.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/24/sports-insider-trading/#comment-19070 Chris F. Masse Thu, 05 Jun 2008 12:12:22 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6994#comment-19070 @Chris F. Masse: But my warming was to Ed Murray, not to SandRacer. @Chris F. Masse: But my warming was to Ed Murray, not to SandRacer.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/24/sports-insider-trading/#comment-19069 Chris F. Masse Thu, 05 Jun 2008 12:08:10 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6994#comment-19069 @Ed Murray: Sorry, it was Sandracer: http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/04/betfair-casino-takes-back-registration-bonus/#comment-19034 @Ed Murray: Sorry, it was Sandracer:
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....ment-19034

]]> By: Ed Murray http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/24/sports-insider-trading/#comment-19064 Ed Murray Thu, 05 Jun 2008 11:53:11 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6994#comment-19064 Medemi- restricting brand new accounts is the way forward initially, but in the long run this will fail as well, because the subset of people who are putting liquidity into the gambling markets, will inevitably start to overlap with the subset of people who can influence the outcomes of sporting contests.  That Hansie Cronje documentary showed just how casually and easily bookmakers were able to influence not only Cronje, but other cricketers too.  One of the bookmakers involved was openly boasting about his influence.  - In the long run, betting has to be as close to fair as possible, and in the end, a human judgement call will have to be made to turn down certain types of accounts/betting behaviour.  Medemi- restricting brand new accounts is the way forward initially, but in the long run this will fail as well, because the subset of people who are putting liquidity into the gambling markets, will inevitably start to overlap with the subset of people who can influence the outcomes of sporting contests.  That Hansie Cronje documentary showed just how casually and easily bookmakers were able to influence not only Cronje, but other cricketers too.  One of the bookmakers involved was openly boasting about his influence. 
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In the long run, betting has to be as close to fair as possible, and in the end, a human judgement call will have to be made to turn down certain types of accounts/betting behaviour. 

]]> By: Ed Murray http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/24/sports-insider-trading/#comment-19063 Ed Murray Thu, 05 Jun 2008 11:47:16 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6994#comment-19063 <em>“Playing to win as much money as possible with the aid of a marketing offer is not fraud”</em> - Chris - is that a quote from me?  I'm a little bit lost - apologies - the thread about the marketing offer (the casino bonus?) is a different one to this one?  Sorry for being confused. “Playing to win as much money as possible with the aid of a marketing offer is not fraud”
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Chris - is that a quote from me?  I’m a little bit lost - apologies - the thread about the marketing offer (the casino bonus?) is a different one to this one?  Sorry for being confused.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/24/sports-insider-trading/#comment-19049 Chris F. Masse Thu, 05 Jun 2008 06:11:44 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6994#comment-19049 @Ed Murray: - Reminder: - Please don't defame BetFair. - Publish verified facts, only. @Ed Murray:
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Reminder:
- Please don’t defame BetFair.
- Publish verified facts, only.

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