Asymmetry in Obama nomination market

As of today, on regular margin, it would take roughly $10,000 to raise the probability of nomination by 0.5%, but only $1,000 to lower it by 10%, briefly.

Even for profit-takers, a roughly 30% after-fees annualized return seems like a lot to forgo.

This with Gore still well-bid at 2%.

About Jason Ruspini

Senior Vice President at Conquest Capital Group, Research - New York, U.S.A.
This entry was posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities and tagged , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Asymmetry in Obama nomination market

  1. Chris Masse says:

    Don’t mind, Jason. I’m testing the comment function… I have received a complaint about it… (I think it was a momentary bug. If this present comment appears fine, then that would be my final hypothesis.)…

  2. Jason Ruspini says:

    That this market just broke above 92% today is somewhat pathetic. Were liquidity-seeking profit-takers aggravating the longshot bias?

Leave a Reply