Asymmetry in Obama nomination market
Jason Ruspini May 24th, 2008
As of today, on regular margin, it would take roughly $10,000 to raise the probability of nomination by 0.5%, but only $1,000 to lower it by 10%, briefly.
Even for profit-takers, a roughly 30% after-fees annualized return seems like a lot to forgo.
This with Gore still well-bid at 2%.
Don’t mind, Jason. I’m testing the comment function… I have received a complaint about it… (I think it was a momentary bug. If this present comment appears fine, then that would be my final hypothesis.)…
That this market just broke above 92% today is somewhat pathetic. Were liquidity-seeking profit-takers aggravating the longshot bias?