Comments on: Did Bin Laden speculate on the US airline stock derivatives (shorting them) between September 6, 2001 (date when he learned the timing of the attacks), and September 11, 2001 (date of the 4 attacks)? http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/23/bin-laden-airlines-stocks/ Prediction Markets For All Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:23:51 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/23/bin-laden-airlines-stocks/#comment-18841 Jason Ruspini Fri, 23 May 2008 19:40:30 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6972#comment-18841 Haven't read the paper yet, but yes this was fully investigated and nothing was found. As the linked story indicates, there were a few tangible reasons to sell airline stocks in the weeks leading up to September 11th. I actually sold Boeing on September 10th. . Also the the CFTC does not have jurisdiction over those infamous sorts of event markets because they do not qualify as statutory commodities. Relevant part of CEA, the definition of "excluded" (meaning statutory) commodity: QUOTE (iv) an occurrence, extent of an occurrence, or contingency (other than a change in the price, rate, value, or level of a commodity not described in clause (i)) that is— <a></a> (I) beyond the control of the parties to the relevant contract, agreement, or transaction; and <a></a> (II) associated with a financial, commercial, or economic consequence. QUOTE . Therefore, by their nature, there is no way to identify who might manipulate the outcome of these kinds of markets, so they do not qualify as commodities. It's a nice, antiseptic way for them to avoid that question entirely. A broad-based index is another story. Haven’t read the paper yet, but yes this was fully investigated and nothing was found. As the linked story indicates, there were a few tangible reasons to sell airline stocks in the weeks leading up to September 11th. I actually sold Boeing on September 10th.
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Also the the CFTC does not have jurisdiction over those infamous sorts of event markets because they do not qualify as statutory commodities. Relevant part of CEA, the definition of “excluded” (meaning statutory) commodity:
QUOTE
(iv) an occurrence, extent of an occurrence, or contingency (other than a change in the price, rate, value, or level of a commodity not described in clause (i)) that is—
(I) beyond the control of the parties to the relevant contract, agreement, or transaction; and
(II) associated with a financial, commercial, or economic consequence.

QUOTE
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Therefore, by their nature, there is no way to identify who might manipulate the outcome of these kinds of markets, so they do not qualify as commodities. It’s a nice, antiseptic way for them to avoid that question entirely. A broad-based index is another story.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/23/bin-laden-airlines-stocks/#comment-18840 Chris F. Masse Fri, 23 May 2008 19:22:51 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6972#comment-18840 @Robin Hanson: Corrected. Thanks. http://http//www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/503645 @Robin Hanson: Corrected. Thanks.
http://http//www.journals.uchi.....086/503645

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/23/bin-laden-airlines-stocks/#comment-18838 Robin Hanson Fri, 23 May 2008 18:07:03 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6972#comment-18838 Very interesting!  (P.S. The main link is broken.) Very interesting!  (P.S. The main link is broken.)

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