Comments on: Prediction markets = “the future of journalism” —said, from day one, Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures. Emile, if you have balls, let’s do it —all together.

By: FINALLY, THE PREDICTION MARKETS ARRIVE IN GREAT BRITAIN. | Midas Oracle .ORG

Wed, 21 May 2008 10:21:16 +0000

[...] Anyway, the dead-tree, print newspapers are dying, and the future belongs to blog networks. [...]

By: Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 21 May 2008 08:26:22 +0000

@Medemi: OK.

By: Janet

Janet — Wed, 21 May 2008 05:00:45 +0000

Political prediction markets should be a tool used by trusted political experts reporting on the horse races and other issues. It must be awesome predictions.

By: Medemi

Medemi — Tue, 20 May 2008 21:58:57 +0000

(It appeared I wasn’t logged on, that’s what the test was for)
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FYI, the price on Poland to win has dropped from 500 to 50.
That’s because she can’t sing. But she did very well this time.
In stead, I have to listen to some idiot commentator on TV, talking nonsense all the time. Ah well… nothing new there.

By: Medemi

Medemi — Tue, 20 May 2008 20:53:59 +0000

And those dumbass reporters can’t see it…

By: Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 20 May 2008 20:44:23 +0000

@Medemi: I fully agree with what you are saying.

By: Medemi

Medemi — Tue, 20 May 2008 19:53:56 +0000

Chris,
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Maybe you missed my point, maybe not.
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Poland was on for the Eurovision Song Contest, just now.
She had a good performance, vocally, IMO. Commenters have their say, but all of this is non-informative. We can check whether she had a good performance, by looking at the price (=market generated probability).
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Timing is important.
Price changing events (or not, when you expect it) = news value.
Cause and effect…

By: Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 20 May 2008 19:13:29 +0000

@Medemi: The guy who is “ahead” is a guy named Justin Wolfers.
- news is valuable to people
- market-generated probabilities are valuable
- betting advice is valuable
I want to group all that in each story.

By: HubDub’s Nigel Eccles is the man. | Midas Oracle .ORG

HubDub’s Nigel Eccles is the man. | Midas Oracle .ORG — Tue, 20 May 2008 19:09:29 +0000

[...] In some kind of small ways, Nigel Eccles is pioneering “the future of journalism“. [...]

By: Medemi

Medemi — Tue, 20 May 2008 18:36:59 +0000

Chris,
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common sense would suggest you’re way ahead of me, but still, I have this thought which I haven’t read about yet.
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What information is valuable to companies, people - the public ?
Price changing events. A speech made by Bush, a televised Clinton-Obama debate. Actually we don’t care. Any event will do, and we can use prediction markets to determine/evaluate what is a price changing event and what isn’t, and report/discuss it.
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What we need is :
Dynamic charts, a continuous flow of trading activity, real money markets. For starters….
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If you can do this, you have the “future of journalism”. Polls can do it, but they are slow, it’s just one snapshot, and they’re less reliable.
Think about it, or maybe you have.