Comments on: Robust, the prediction markets are the best mechanism for aggregating information. Thus, companies should use them for assessing strategy and hedging risks.

By: Medemi

Medemi — Mon, 19 May 2008 20:04:23 +0000

ok. I think you’ve detected a void that needs to be filled. Because people don’t understand the value of it. Good luck.

By: Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 19 May 2008 19:44:23 +0000

@Medemi: See that stoy:
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....ack-obama/
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I want to industrialize stories like this one. In a richer way:
- more news bits, more news links;
- charts with news markets;
- an explainer on prediction markets;
- a betting advice area, with statistical information.

By: Medemi

Medemi — Mon, 19 May 2008 18:43:35 +0000

Chris,
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what is it you want to achieve with your Midas Oracle Project ?
Prediction market journalism at it’s best ? Provide a source of information, a service ?
Explain how momentum trading works, hand out winning strategies ?
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I don’t know…
There are people out there who would throw all that in the garbage can. People who can make money because they have superior knowledge. They collect their own data (or use the raw data available), analyze it themselves, use their own methods. To what degree their judgement will determine the price in an event, I don’t know. Depends on a number of factors.

By: Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 19 May 2008 17:36:43 +0000

@Medemi: Traders aggregate information digested by the experts.

By: Medemi

Medemi — Sun, 18 May 2008 23:41:49 +0000

There’s a lot of good stuff in there, although I don’t get the latter part where he talks about the GIGO principle.
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You don’t even need an economist, scientist or any other so-called “expert”.
There are ”normal” people out there who know or understand about things, based on knowledge, experience, insight etc. They could easily be more right than your average “expert”.
Example. Hopefully not a bad one. I know from experience how rapidly a political climate can change. This is what we could be witnessing in the US and in the UK today. Expect the unexpected, although that doesn’t apply as a rule. People want change in the current environment. There’s a lot of psychology involved. And Clinton never had a chance IMO.