My concern is that the small stakes limit of $2,000, the limits on who can operate markets, and the limitations on the scope of markets, will lead to spotty coverage which will preclude a robust evaluation of the merits of prediction markets in general. After all, we have intrade.com already which provides spotty coverage of a number of issues - how much more will this add?
Maybe “gambling can save science“, but I don’t see how these steps would show it.
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Proof that you can be “high IQ” and still lack judgment (in small ways).
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P.S.: Over that the micro slam above, I have the highest esteem and respect for Robin Hanson —a prediction market pioneer.
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