Comments on: Why I don’t believe in VP prediction markets http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/15/vp-prediction-markets/ Prediction Markets For All Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:22:54 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight. | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/15/vp-prediction-markets/#comment-21236 The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight. | Midas Oracle .ORG Sun, 24 Aug 2008 18:10:33 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6906#comment-21236 [...] Bo Cowgill, back in May 2008 (when I started to act as a prophet of doom): [...] [...] Bo Cowgill, back in May 2008 (when I started to act as a prophet of doom): [...]

]]> By: Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets. — Don’t bet on Hillary Clinton as VP. — Don’t listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance. — Don’t believe in “vice presidential selec http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/15/vp-prediction-markets/#comment-19065 Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets. — Don’t bet on Hillary Clinton as VP. — Don’t listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance. — Don’t believe in “vice presidential selec Thu, 05 Jun 2008 12:02:37 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6906#comment-19065 [...] I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Only 2 men in the world know what is going to happen: Barack Obama, and John McCain. [...] [...] I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Only 2 men in the world know what is going to happen: Barack Obama, and John McCain. [...]

]]> By: JIMMY CARTER: Picking up Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket “would be the worst mistake that could be made”. | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/15/vp-prediction-markets/#comment-19025 JIMMY CARTER: Picking up Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket “would be the worst mistake that could be made”. | Midas Oracle .ORG Wed, 04 Jun 2008 17:00:00 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6906#comment-19025 [...] I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. (But Bo compels me to publish about them anyway. [...] [...] I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. (But Bo compels me to publish about them anyway. [...]

]]> By: Who will be the next US Vice President, past January 2009? | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/15/vp-prediction-markets/#comment-18885 Who will be the next US Vice President, past January 2009? | Midas Oracle .ORG Mon, 26 May 2008 12:42:34 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6906#comment-18885 [...] Bo Cowgill, I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Read this WSJ post, for [...] [...] Bo Cowgill, I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Read this WSJ post, for [...]

]]> By: caveat bettor http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/15/vp-prediction-markets/#comment-18668 caveat bettor Fri, 16 May 2008 17:09:35 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6906#comment-18668 Surely we agree that the error rates for such a secretive process would be quite high, but wouldn't the marginal value of a predicition market in such cases, relative to more transparent processes, be higher as well? There's no balance in looking at one side of the ledger (in this case, the risk side, ignoring the reward side). Surely we agree that the error rates for such a secretive process would be quite high, but wouldn’t the marginal value of a predicition market in such cases, relative to more transparent processes, be higher as well?

There’s no balance in looking at one side of the ledger (in this case, the risk side, ignoring the reward side).

]]> By: ABC 20/20 — A good (but servile) explainer on the wisdom of crowds and the prediction markets | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/15/vp-prediction-markets/#comment-18653 ABC 20/20 — A good (but servile) explainer on the wisdom of crowds and the prediction markets | Midas Oracle .ORG Fri, 16 May 2008 07:51:46 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6906#comment-18653 [...] purpose. That is complete bullshit. That is pure hype. As I said yesterday, an analyst should check whether a given prediction market is really able of aggregating important information. Just because John Delaney wants to create a betting market to get money doesn’t mean that [...] [...] purpose. That is complete bullshit. That is pure hype. As I said yesterday, an analyst should check whether a given prediction market is really able of aggregating important information. Just because John Delaney wants to create a betting market to get money doesn’t mean that [...]

]]> By: STRAIGHT FROM OUR U-TURN DEPARTMENT: Here are the VP prediction markets —all of them. | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/15/vp-prediction-markets/#comment-18625 STRAIGHT FROM OUR U-TURN DEPARTMENT: Here are the VP prediction markets —all of them. | Midas Oracle .ORG Thu, 15 May 2008 11:06:44 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6906#comment-18625 [...] you love the Web? Within 15 minutes of my posting my absolute and definitive refusal to publish any bits about the VP prediction markets, I received a long rebuttal by Google’s Bo Cowgill —whose great prediction market paper [...] [...] you love the Web? Within 15 minutes of my posting my absolute and definitive refusal to publish any bits about the VP prediction markets, I received a long rebuttal by Google’s Bo Cowgill —whose great prediction market paper [...]

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/15/vp-prediction-markets/#comment-18624 Chris F. Masse Thu, 15 May 2008 10:32:13 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6906#comment-18624 @Bo: Great, a polémique. :-D - The common ground is that: - I should cover them; - but with the mention that I don't think they can aggregate all info. - @Bo: Great, a polémique. :-D -
The common ground is that:
- I should cover them;
- but with the mention that I don’t think they can aggregate all info.
-

]]> By: Bo http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/15/vp-prediction-markets/#comment-18623 Bo Thu, 15 May 2008 10:14:54 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6906#comment-18623 This is dumb. Cover them if something interesting happens. Maybe your theory will turn out to be wrong. Anyhow: Although the decision is made in secrecy, the Presidential nominees have a number incentives which we have plenty of information about. Specifically: * They want someone who will balance their tickets in terms of geography, race and class. * They want someone who will help with weak areas of their campaigns. * They want someone who will be a good campaign surrogate -- giving good speeches and attacking the opponents effectively. * They want to avoid a VP who will de-motivate or offend the base. * They want to avoid someone with a bunch of skeletons in the closet such as angry ex-wives, out-of-wedlock kids, etc. * Etc etc. Anyhow, I don't see any reason to ignore these markets in case something interesting happens. I read Midas Oracle so that I don't *have* to read a whole bunch of other websites! This is dumb. Cover them if something interesting happens. Maybe your theory will turn out to be wrong. Anyhow: Although the decision is made in secrecy, the Presidential nominees have a number incentives which we have plenty of information about. Specifically:
* They want someone who will balance their tickets in terms of geography, race and class.
* They want someone who will help with weak areas of their campaigns.
* They want someone who will be a good campaign surrogate — giving good speeches and attacking the opponents effectively.
* They want to avoid a VP who will de-motivate or offend the base.
* They want to avoid someone with a bunch of skeletons in the closet such as angry ex-wives, out-of-wedlock kids, etc.
* Etc etc.
Anyhow, I don’t see any reason to ignore these markets in case something interesting happens. I read Midas Oracle so that I don’t *have* to read a whole bunch of other websites!

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