The HubDub blog does not practice prediction market journalism, alas.

Chris F. Masse May 10th, 2008

Take their latest political output: not a single word about HubDub’s prices / probabilities. So, what the HubDub blog does is simply political journalism, with a link to the related HubDub prediction market.

Examples of prediction market journalism:

Justin Wolfers at Freakonomics & Wall Street Journal —spot that he cites InTrade’s prices as probabilities.
the InTrade bulletin —spot that they publish some good, readable compound charts.
my previous Obama+Clinton post —spot that I’m the only one in the Blogosphere to do a multi-exchange reporting.

The 3 examples above are not the richest forms of prediction market journalism, but it’s a good step in the right direction. (Small step for for a man; big step for humanity. )

I am disappointed that Nigel Eccles (who is a guy who has computed many things right, other than that) let his bloggers without a clear handbook.

Tags: bloggers, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, HubDub blog, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, Midas Oracle, Nigel Eccles, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, prices, probabilities

Exchanges & Markets , Journalism & Prediction Market Journalism
Comments(4)

4 Responses to “The HubDub blog does not practice prediction market journalism, alas.”

# Nigel Eccles on 11 May 2008 at 5:37 pm

[Link bait taken]
The reason we haven’t moved to quoting market prices is nearly all of our blog posts related to new markets that have no price history (either on Hubdub or any other market). Therefore the blog post is written at the same time as the question is created.
However, you are right that we could quote our opening prices in the posts. We will move to doing that more over the next couple of weeks. Also I am planning on doing a weekly post on market movements.
# Chris F. Masse on 11 May 2008 at 6:34 pm

@Nigel Eccles: Publishing dynamic charts —which give the latest prices, no matter when the reader download the page— is one of the solutions.
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I picked up this market because it has been established for a while. How come you’re not citing odds generated by this prediction market?
# Chris F. Masse on 11 May 2008 at 6:38 pm

@Nigel Eccles: We need to talk —we, the people in this field— together to define what is prediction market journalism, and why it’s important.
# Prediction market journalism can’t be practiced by the “mainstream media”. What we need is a revolution. | Midas Oracle .ORGon 15 May 2008 at 5:19 am

[...] cave) what InTrade does. The real thing is prediction market journalism —and to this day, only Justin Wolfers does practice it (once a [...]