Comments on: eLab eXchange Web of Misery - Which Online Indicators of Distress Will Grow Most? http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/06/elab-exchange-web-of-misery-which-online-indicators-of-distress-will-grow-most/ Prediction Markets For All Fri, 22 Aug 2008 00:11:06 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.1 By: Donna Hoffman http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/06/elab-exchange-web-of-misery-which-online-indicators-of-distress-will-grow-most/#comment-18514 Donna Hoffman Sun, 11 May 2008 17:04:11 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6838#comment-18514 Thanks for the comment.  If you register, you can click "full info" and find some analysis and historical data. DLH Thanks for the comment.  If you register, you can click “full info” and find some analysis and historical data.
DLH

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/06/elab-exchange-web-of-misery-which-online-indicators-of-distress-will-grow-most/#comment-18502 Jason Ruspini Sun, 11 May 2008 14:25:27 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6838#comment-18502 This tool is fun to use - more fun than yet another market-auction, but unless I have really bad information, most forecasts are quite high.  In only 3 of 10 questions is the average within my range and in every case it's higher.  If forecasters are saying that the forecasting exercise itself will increase traffic, then it's all pretty flawed in addition to the natural "basis risk".  I don't think that's what they're saying though, although it might be true for a low traffic site like SAMHSA.  Instead of providing a link to each site, why not have a link to a page describing the site and containing historical estimates of the relevant values?  That would provide more realistic anchors for predictions. This tool is fun to use - more fun than yet another market-auction, but unless I have really bad information, most forecasts are quite high.  In only 3 of 10 questions is the average within my range and in every case it’s higher.  If forecasters are saying that the forecasting exercise itself will increase traffic, then it’s all pretty flawed in addition to the natural “basis risk”.  I don’t think that’s what they’re saying though, although it might be true for a low traffic site like SAMHSA.  Instead of providing a link to each site, why not have a link to a page describing the site and containing historical estimates of the relevant values?  That would provide more realistic anchors for predictions.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/06/elab-exchange-web-of-misery-which-online-indicators-of-distress-will-grow-most/#comment-18390 Chris F. Masse Wed, 07 May 2008 07:21:30 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6838#comment-18390 <p>This 10-questions forecasting game is a good idea, in the current economic climate.</p> <p>-</p> <p>I'm less sure about targeting <strong>one</strong> website only, each time ---as opposed to <strong>a group of</strong> websites in the same category. If a big blogger of Yahoo! decides, out of the blue, to link to one site, its traffic could jump out of curiosity, for a while. But that's an unlikely event, I admit.</p> <p>-</p> This 10-questions forecasting game is a good idea, in the current economic climate.

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I’m less sure about targeting one website only, each time —as opposed to a group of websites in the same category. If a big blogger of Yahoo! decides, out of the blue, to link to one site, its traffic could jump out of curiosity, for a while. But that’s an unlikely event, I admit.

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