Hey, mister the “pragmatist”, how would a for-profit, retail, real-money prediction exchange survive with such illiquid (socially valuable) prediction markets?

Posted on May 5, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

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And I bet those 2 trades are his own. :-D

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UPDATE: See his comment, just below.

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About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
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2 Responses to Hey, mister the “pragmatist”, how would a for-profit, retail, real-money prediction exchange survive with such illiquid (socially valuable) prediction markets?

  1. David Pennock says:
    May 5, 2008 at 8:19 AM

    First, I actually don’t believe search engine futures main benefit is “social value”, but rather hedging and speculating like most financial instruments. If this market was clearly legal and open to US traders, it might have more liquidity.
    Or maybe not.

    Just because one company (HedgeStreet) and a few markets proposed by academics have failed to draw liquidity doesn’t mean every non-sports market is doomed.

  2. Chris F. Masse says:
    May 5, 2008 at 8:29 AM

    @David Pennock: I don’t buy your first point. InTrade is famous enough in America, thanks to the free publicity provided by many US economists. As for your second point, I’d favor non-sports prediction markets organized by a generalist prediction exchange (which makes most of its profits on sports, and thus can subsidize the socially valuable prediction markets).

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