Comments on: CFTC Oversight May Not be a Boon. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/03/6803/ Prediction Markets For All Wed, 07 Jan 2009 21:20:29 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: The CFTC is going to close the comments in 3 days. We have 3 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Ins http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/03/6803/#comment-20019 The CFTC is going to close the comments in 3 days. We have 3 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Ins Fri, 04 Jul 2008 10:52:53 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6803#comment-20019 [...] - Chris Hibbert’s libertarian take. [...] [...] - Chris Hibbert’s libertarian take. [...]

]]> By: The CFTC is going to close the comments in 6 days. We have 6 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Ins http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/03/6803/#comment-19830 The CFTC is going to close the comments in 6 days. We have 6 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Ins Tue, 01 Jul 2008 14:01:30 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6803#comment-19830 [...] - Chris Hibbert’s libertarian take. [...] [...] - Chris Hibbert’s libertarian take. [...]

]]> By: The CFTC is going to close the comments in 7 days. We have 7 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Ins http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/03/6803/#comment-19702 The CFTC is going to close the comments in 7 days. We have 7 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Ins Mon, 30 Jun 2008 07:55:00 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6803#comment-19702 [...] - Chris Hibbert’s libertarian take. [...] [...] - Chris Hibbert’s libertarian take. [...]

]]> By: The CFTC is going to close the comments in 9 days. We have 9 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Ins http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/03/6803/#comment-19610 The CFTC is going to close the comments in 9 days. We have 9 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Ins Sat, 28 Jun 2008 19:51:09 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6803#comment-19610 [...] - Chris Hibbert’s libertarian take. [...] [...] - Chris Hibbert’s libertarian take. [...]

]]> By: The CFTC is going to close the comments in 11 days. We have 11 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/03/6803/#comment-19559 The CFTC is going to close the comments in 11 days. We have 11 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, Thu, 26 Jun 2008 15:22:55 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6803#comment-19559 [...] - Chris Hibbert’s libertarian take. [...] [...] - Chris Hibbert’s libertarian take. [...]

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/03/6803/#comment-18363 Chris F. Masse Mon, 05 May 2008 07:37:25 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6803#comment-18363 <p>Who is behind the CFTC’s request?</p> <p>http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/05/cftc/</p> Who is behind the CFTC’s request?

http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/05/cftc/

]]> By: medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/03/6803/#comment-18357 medemi Sun, 04 May 2008 23:21:05 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6803#comment-18357 I don't know Jason, you could be right. - Sure, this is an election year, and should act as a reinforcer, isn't that why we should embrace it ? - What matters to me (for now) is that those markets that will be offered, will be offered in a responsible way, because corruption is not a distant possibility. Little do they know in the States, perhaps? I don’t know Jason, you could be right.
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Sure, this is an election year, and should act as a reinforcer, isn’t that why we should embrace it ?
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What matters to me (for now) is that those markets that will be offered, will be offered in a responsible way, because corruption is not a distant possibility. Little do they know in the States, perhaps?

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/03/6803/#comment-18355 Jason Ruspini Sun, 04 May 2008 22:32:38 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6803#comment-18355 Yes, but the fact that they have no doubt received such requests for years suggests that there is a new relatively large (in terms of money - not nobels!) player at the margin.  Sure, HS and others (including the company Paul M? suggested) have probably stepped up requests because it's an election year, and the CFTC could be more actively trying to differentiate itself from the SEC.  This is more an object of interest with respect to private investments than to the general future of prediction markets.  In general I think the request was a passive-aggressive way of solidifying jurisdiction over event markets, and by 2012, say, will actually result in a few "interesting" US-regulated markets, perhaps more if  an exchange gets serious about self-certification.. which might be the best case scenario. Yes, but the fact that they have no doubt received such requests for years suggests that there is a new relatively large (in terms of money - not nobels!) player at the margin.  Sure, HS and others (including the company Paul M? suggested) have probably stepped up requests because it’s an election year, and the CFTC could be more actively trying to differentiate itself from the SEC.  This is more an object of interest with respect to private investments than to the general future of prediction markets.  In general I think the request was a passive-aggressive way of solidifying jurisdiction over event markets, and by 2012, say, will actually result in a few “interesting” US-regulated markets, perhaps more if  an exchange gets serious about self-certification.. which might be the best case scenario.

]]> By: medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/03/6803/#comment-18353 medemi Sun, 04 May 2008 22:06:44 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6803#comment-18353 <em>An interesting immediate question is who is behind the CFTC’s request </em>From what i've read (and that's not a lot (yet), so you shouldn't trust my opinion on this) is that the CFTC have received requests from different sources to offer certain markets. And they haven't got a clue how to deal with it... in a responsible way.   An interesting immediate question is who is behind the CFTC’s request

From what i’ve read (and that’s not a lot (yet), so you shouldn’t trust my opinion on this) is that the CFTC have received requests from different sources to offer certain markets. And they haven’t got a clue how to deal with it… in a responsible way.  

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/03/6803/#comment-18351 Jason Ruspini Sun, 04 May 2008 21:24:47 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6803#comment-18351 An interesting immediate question is who is behind the CFTC's request, and whether they would effectively be granted a monopoly on whatever type of market they have planned. . My opinion on jurisdiction is basically the same as it was here: . http://riskmarkets.blogspot.com/2006/12/credit-event-futures-and-other-fauna.html http://riskmarkets.blogspot.com/2006/12/flora-of-north-america-cftc-regulation.html . This is somewhat worrying given what happened to Hedgestreet, although it's still not clear to me whether they had the CFTC's blessing to launch presidential futures but didn't want to, or were always blocked by the CFTC on that market.  At one point I was told the former, but the latter is more believable. . There is also the possibility that the CFTC will not exist in five years and even if something real begins to come from this process, the rug might be pulled from under it in one way or another.         An interesting immediate question is who is behind the CFTC’s request, and whether they would effectively be granted a monopoly on whatever type of market they have planned.
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My opinion on jurisdiction is basically the same as it was here:
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http://riskmarkets.blogspot.co.....fauna.html
http://riskmarkets.blogspot.co.....ation.html
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This is somewhat worrying given what happened to Hedgestreet, although it’s still not clear to me whether they had the CFTC’s blessing to launch presidential futures but didn’t want to, or were always blocked by the CFTC on that market.  At one point I was told the former, but the latter is more believable.
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There is also the possibility that the CFTC will not exist in five years and even if something real begins to come from this process, the rug might be pulled from under it in one way or another.
 
 
 
 

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