Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.
Chris F. Masse April 22nd, 2008
I don’t get to vote for President this primary season. I live in Michigan. The party leaders (both here and in D.C.) couldn’t get their act together, and thus our votes will not be counted.
So, if you live in Pennsylvania, can you do me a favor? Will you please cast my vote — and yours — on Tuesday for Senator Barack Obama?
[O]ver the past two months, the actions and words of Hillary Clinton have gone from being merely disappointing to downright disgusting. I guess the debate last week was the final straw. I’ve watched Senator Clinton and her husband play this game of appealing to the worst side of white people, but last Wednesday, when she hurled the name “Farrakhan” out of nowhere, well that’s when the silly season came to an early end for me. She said the “F” word to scare white people, pure and simple. Of course, Obama has no connection to Farrakhan. But, according to Senator Clinton, Obama’s pastor does — AND the “church bulletin” once included a Los Angeles Times op-ed from some guy with Hamas! No, not the church bulletin!
This sleazy attempt to smear Obama was brilliantly explained the following night by Stephen Colbert. He pointed out that if Obama is supported by Ted Kennedy, who is Catholic, and the Catholic Church is led by a Pope who was in the Hitler Youth, that can mean only one thing: OBAMA LOVES HITLER! [...]
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See Memeorandum for more on the PA election.
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Democratic Primary - Pennsylvania
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InTrade stopped outputting compound charts for primaries, alas.
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Hillary Clinton:
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Barack Obama:
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Obama won’t win the Pennsylvania Democratic primary.
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2008 US Presidential Election Winner - Individual
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2008 US Presidential Elections
Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade
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Source: BetFair Politics Zone
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Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination
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Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination
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Next US President Will Be Democratic.
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Next US President Will Be Republican.
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
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More Info:
- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts
- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets
- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets
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- Exchange / Market Liquidity , Exchanges & Markets , Market Prices & Probabilities , Politics
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[...] I observe, in passing, that their Pennsylvania compound chart is still alive (which is good), but, alas, the individual Clinton and Obama charts have died less than 24 hours after the primary elections. (I have strongly regretted this situation, to say the least, as you remember. If you want to compare BetFair with the other prediction exchanges on that technical matter, click here to see all the expired Pennsylvania charts.) [...]