Alas, that paper is not free to access.
Andrew McAfee’s post reveals this:
Prediction markets were (sic) very much like stock markets. They contained securities, each of which had a price. [...]
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Not sure why they used the past tense.
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Prediction markets are in fact event derivative markets.
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Papers from Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz, Koleman Strumpf, etc., are free to download.
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Via George Tziralis, of Ask Markets.
Previously: Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work?
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Not sure what you are getting at, Chris. These guys look like serious researchers to me. The article cited is a case study primarily intended for use in teaching, not the typical academic article aiming for journal publication, but nonetheless represents real research.
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I know you are probably just blanching at the “like stock markets” phrasing. I agree with you there – it is a bad analogy which presents misleading connotations. But I wouldn’t dismiss the authors as un-serious just based upon use of a bad analogy to introduce the idea of prediction markets.
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By the way, when I look at Andrew McAfee’s blog, I see three full paragraphs and not just two lines.
@Michael Giberson: It would be better if the article were free for all to read. All papers from Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz and Koleman Strumpf are free to download.
[I have change one line in the text.]