Comments on: La Sagesse Des Foules http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/12/la-sagesse-des-foules/ Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off Thu, 18 Mar 2010 13:41:42 -0400 hourly 1 By: Increasing diversity improves predictions. | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/12/la-sagesse-des-foules/#comment-17951 Increasing diversity improves predictions. | Midas Oracle .ORG Sun, 13 Apr 2008 21:27:27 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6574#comment-17951 [...] Via Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures, Scott Page’s presentation (PPT file). [...] [...] Via Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures, Scott Page’s presentation (PPT file). [...]

]]> By: Emile Servan-Schreiber http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/12/la-sagesse-des-foules/#comment-17949 Emile Servan-Schreiber Sun, 13 Apr 2008 20:06:09 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6574#comment-17949 I belatedly discovered Scott Page's wonderful book a couple weeks ago while preparing for a presentation I delivered in Washington. It apparently came out in early 2007, and even though it discusses prediction markets only very briefly, it is so relevant to what we do that I was amazed not to have heard about it before. The core of the book is Page's Diversity Theorem, a deceptively simple equation that lays the mathematical foundation for the Wisdom of Crowds. Applied to predictions, it says: <a href="http://epscor.unl.edu/ppts/Page.ppt" rel="nofollow"><em>Collective Error = Average Individual Error - Prediction Diversity</em></a> (click on the link for one of Page's PPT that explains it all) The beauty of this theorem is in its semantic implications: In particular means that   group-level performance results as much from diversity as from individual ability. That explains why an expert can be outperformed by a diverse group of lesser experts. For a lot of people, the fact that diversity can make up for individual ability is highly counter intuitive, so it's really nice to have Page's theorem to back it up. The book is also wonderfully written. I highly recommend it.     I belatedly discovered Scott Page’s wonderful book a couple weeks ago while preparing for a presentation I delivered in Washington. It apparently came out in early 2007, and even though it discusses prediction markets only very briefly, it is so relevant to what we do that I was amazed not to have heard about it before.
The core of the book is Page’s Diversity Theorem, a deceptively simple equation that lays the mathematical foundation for the Wisdom of Crowds. Applied to predictions, it says:
Collective Error = Average Individual Error – Prediction Diversity
(click on the link for one of Page’s PPT that explains it all)
The beauty of this theorem is in its semantic implications: In particular means that   group-level performance results as much from diversity as from individual ability. That explains why an expert can be outperformed by a diverse group of lesser experts. For a lot of people, the fact that diversity can make up for individual ability is highly counter intuitive, so it’s really nice to have Page’s theorem to back it up.
The book is also wonderfully written. I highly recommend it.
 
 

]]> By: The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/12/la-sagesse-des-foules/#comment-17945 The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies | Midas Oracle .ORG Sun, 13 Apr 2008 18:02:19 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6574#comment-17945 [...] Via Emile Servan-Schreiber (who claims it’s the supportive evidence for The Wisdom Of Crowds) [...] [...] Via Emile Servan-Schreiber (who claims it’s the supportive evidence for The Wisdom Of Crowds) [...]

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/12/la-sagesse-des-foules/#comment-17943 Chris F. Masse Sun, 13 Apr 2008 14:50:00 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6574#comment-17943 <p>Emile,</p> <p>1. Curious about Scott Page's book, "The Difference", which you cite at Amazon.</p> <p>The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies (Hardcover) http://www.amazon.com/Difference-Diversity-Creates-Schools-Societies/dp/0691128383/</p> <p>2. At Amazon, you say the Wisdom Of Crowds was out in 2003. It's 2004, I believe.</p> <p>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds</p> <p>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/24/email-interview-ken-kittlitz/#comment-777</p> Emile,

1. Curious about Scott Page’s book, “The Difference”, which you cite at Amazon.

The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies (Hardcover)
http://www.amazon.com/Difference-Diversity-Creates-Schools-Societies/dp/0691128383/

2. At Amazon, you say the Wisdom Of Crowds was out in 2003. It’s 2004, I believe.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/24/email-interview-ken-kittlitz/#comment-777

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/12/la-sagesse-des-foules/#comment-17937 Chris F. Masse Sat, 12 Apr 2008 20:47:34 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6574#comment-17937 <p>Excellent. I like the cover.</p> <p>-</p> <p>I have been following James Surowiecki and found out he is a very careful researcher.</p> <p>http://www.randomhouse.com/features/wisdomofcrowds/Q&A.html</p> <p>http://www.chrisfmasse.com/3/3/books/</p> <p>-</p> Excellent. I like the cover.

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I have been following James Surowiecki and found out he is a very careful researcher.

http://www.randomhouse.com/features/wisdomofcrowds/Q&A.html

http://www.chrisfmasse.com/3/3/books/

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