Some of our luminaries have had their vapors and have boldly stated that the public [*] prediction markets would soon take over the free world and become the forecasting tool of choice for decision makers. Since our movement has started, in 2003, that has not happened —and will never happen (let alone in the year 2020). We were duped by those cocky misleaders. In the coming weeks, I’m going to try to launch a big intra-industry initiative to find the right usage for the public prediction markets. Stay tuned… and I hope I’ll get you on board with me.
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[*] as opposed to the enterprise prediction markets, which is not the topic of my bombastic rant above, which is a horse of another color, and which would deserve a completely different analysis.
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WEB EXCLUSIVE: Here’s what the political world really cares about…
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Yep. You got that right. The general public doesn’t really care either. Now, a curious thing is why Al Gore ranks higher than Ron Paul in InTrade… do people think he is really going to run?
Chewxy,
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1. I’m sure that you read the political news media and you’ve seen that Al Gore’s name is floated in many hypothetical scenarios. (I remember this past week a headline that said something like "Bring in Al Gore" or something like that.)
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2. A good question to ask is whether it would be profitable to short-sell the Al Gore event derivative, taking into account the trading fees, and relatively to the other profit opportunities at InTrade (or BetFair, or else). Traders will only take him down if there are net profits to make in doing so.
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