Via Stan Jonas, Nassim Nicholas Taleb cited in a Bloomberg article (Taleb Outsells Greenspan as Black Swan Gives Worst Turbulence):
Stress tests are inherently risky because they ignore rare but potentially devastating events. [...] .. ["stress test" = Wall Street lingo for examining how a market rout will play out]
Past shortfall doesn’t predict future shortfall. [...]
Bayesian is necessary but not sufficient. [...]
If you are in banking and lending, surprise outcomes are likely to be negative for you. Put yourself in situations where favorable consequences are much larger than unfavorable ones. [...]
Go to parties! If you’re a scientist, you will chance upon a remark that might spark new research. [...]


























