What does climate scientist James Annan think of InTrade’s global warming prediction markets?

Posted on March 17, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Wanna know? Simple: ask him about those. Which I did.

Hmmm…. that is interesting, but an annual prediction is closer to weather forecasting than global warming. Jan and Feb are already v cold so a low price is probably fair (it’s trading $20 per $100 as I write).

I should add that the “probably fair” is a very rough guess, not based on any careful calculation. The 5th hottest year is about +0.55 in their units (anomaly from 1951-80 average), Jan and Feb are at +0.19 (ave) so it will take an average of .62 for the remainder of the year…which has happened precisely once before, in 2005.

James Annan’s blog

About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
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One Response to What does climate scientist James Annan think of InTrade’s global warming prediction markets?

  1. Chris F. Masse says:
    March 20, 2008 at 3:22 AM

    What odds a hot 2008? – by James Annan (climate scientist)
    http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2008/03/what-odds-hot-2008.html
    -
    A climate scientist takes a close look at InTrade’s global warming prediction markets…
    http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/03/20/james-annan-intrade/

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