What does climate scientist James Annan think of InTrade’s global warming prediction markets?
Chris F. Masse March 17th, 2008
Wanna know? Simple: ask him about those. Which I did.
Hmmm…. that is interesting, but an annual prediction is closer to weather forecasting than global warming. Jan and Feb are already v cold so a low price is probably fair (it’s trading $20 per $100 as I write).
I should add that the “probably fair” is a very rough guess, not based on any careful calculation. The 5th hottest year is about +0.55 in their units (anomaly from 1951-80 average), Jan and Feb are at +0.19 (ave) so it will take an average of .62 for the remainder of the year…which has happened precisely once before, in 2005.
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What odds a hot 2008? - by James Annan (climate scientist)
http://julesandjames.blogspot......-2008.html
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A climate scientist takes a close look at InTrade’s global warming prediction markets…
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....n-intrade/