Midas Oracle .ORG

Chris F. Masse March 4th, 2008

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Noam Scheiber:

1.) Hillary wins both Ohio and Texas.
2.) Hillary wins Ohio; Obama wins Texas.
3.) Obama wins both Ohio and Texas.

I put in bold the most likely scenario, according to InTrade’s prediction markets.

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The Democrats

Ohio

Texas

Vermont

Rhode Island

The Republicans

Ohio

Texas

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Ohio

Texas

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Explainer On Prediction Markets

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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

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More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

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Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

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2008 US Presidential Elections

Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner - Individual

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner - Political Party

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2008 Democratic Nominee

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2008 Republican Nominee

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2008 US Senate Control

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2008 US House Of Representatives Control

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BetFair

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Next US President

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Winning Party

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Female President?

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Democratic Candidate

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Republican Candidate

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Source: BetFair Politics Zone

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NewsFutures

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Presidential Prediction Markets

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Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

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Democratic Nominee

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Hillary Clinton

© NewsFutures

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Barack Obama

© NewsFutures

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Republican Nominee

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John McCain

© NewsFutures

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Sources: InTrade & BetFair & NewsFutures & Bet2Give

- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

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- CNN US Political Dashboard

- Yahoo! News US Political Dashboard

- Political Base - Polls

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3 great prediction market blogs:

- Caveat Bettor

- Alpha Thesis

- Political Betting (U.K.) — right-click on the image below, and open the link in another browser tab…

Tags: 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, John McCain, NewsFutures, Politics, prediction markets, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections

• Exchanges & Markets , Market Prices & Probabilities , Politics
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