Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off
His first group of conditional prediction markets are traded quite well (although thinely), but his second group is a thermo-nuclear disaster. Right-click on the 2 images below, and open the InTrade links in new browser tabs.
I have excerpted the most liquid prediction market on the other blog (which was linked today by Marginal Revolution, for the second time –much to MG’s dismay 
).
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InTrade – “US Presidential Decisions”
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InTrade – “Impact of Next President”
Chris F. Masse on We interrupt this report to bring you some Jazz.Chris F. Masse on OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]Chris F. Masse on “InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.”
Niall O'Connor on We interrupt this report to bring you some Jazz.Niall O'Connor on OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]Niall O'Connor on “InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.”
Max Keiser on OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]
Jason Ruspini on OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]Max Keiser on OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]Jason Ruspini on OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]