Robin Hanson’s conditional prediction markets

His first group of conditional prediction markets are traded quite well (although thinely), but his second group is a thermo-nuclear disaster. Right-click on the 2 images below, and open the InTrade links in new browser tabs.

I have excerpted the most liquid prediction market on the other blog (which was linked today by Marginal Revolution, for the second time –much to MG’s dismay :-D ).

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InTrade – “US Presidential Decisions”

I+RH1

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InTrade – “Impact of Next President”

I+RH2

About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
This entry was posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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