http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/28/getting-from-collective-intelligence-to-collective-action/ Prediction Markets For All Mon, 01 Dec 2008 21:08:46 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/28/getting-from-collective-intelligence-to-collective-action/#comment-17358 Tom W. Bell Tue, 04 Mar 2008 19:28:12 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/28/getting-from-collective-intelligence-to-collective-action/#comment-17358 Jason: The idea is to move the law stepwise, from easy cases to harder ones, thus ending up establishing the legality of real-money, public, prediction markets under U.S. law. I thus deliberately chose a pretty clearly legal case to start with. As you note, though, there remains *some* chance that a prosecutor might act. The goal is to raise and extinguish that chance. - Michael: Maybe. It would take some a good explanation to get a jury to reach that understanding, though. Jason: The idea is to move the law stepwise, from easy cases to harder ones, thus ending up establishing the legality of real-money, public, prediction markets under U.S. law. I thus deliberately chose a pretty clearly legal case to start with. As you note, though, there remains *some* chance that a prosecutor might act. The goal is to raise and extinguish that chance.
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Michael: Maybe. It would take some a good explanation to get a jury to reach that understanding, though.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/28/getting-from-collective-intelligence-to-collective-action/#comment-17351 Michael Giberson Mon, 03 Mar 2008 06:12:02 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/28/getting-from-collective-intelligence-to-collective-action/#comment-17351 In concept, the general workings of a Hanson-type market scoring rule, and in particular the <strong>direct link between payments and improvements to the joint forecast</strong>, seem straightforward and sensible enough that even a jury could recognize that it isn't inherently a gambling exercise. (At least in cases in which it is apparent that specialized study would be linked to an improved forecast -- not, for example, predicting the roll of dice -- and in cases not already linked to gambling -- horse races and sporting events for example.) <strong>A similar story could probably be made for a double auction or other market mechanism</strong>, the market scoring rules only have the advantage that Robin Hanson explained it these exact terms in his articles introducing the mechanism. In concept, the general workings of a Hanson-type market scoring rule, and in particular the direct link between payments and improvements to the joint forecast, seem straightforward and sensible enough that even a jury could recognize that it isn’t inherently a gambling exercise. (At least in cases in which it is apparent that specialized study would be linked to an improved forecast — not, for example, predicting the roll of dice — and in cases not already linked to gambling — horse races and sporting events for example.) A similar story could probably be made for a double auction or other market mechanism, the market scoring rules only have the advantage that Robin Hanson explained it these exact terms in his articles introducing the mechanism.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/28/getting-from-collective-intelligence-to-collective-action/#comment-17347 Jason Ruspini Sun, 02 Mar 2008 19:25:21 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/28/getting-from-collective-intelligence-to-collective-action/#comment-17347 It would be great to see such a prediction market consultancy organization, but isn't this already clearly legal? No risk, no gambling. Consultants are risking their time, which is a thing of value, but I don't think any prosecutor would ever go after a market on those grounds. It would be great to see such a prediction market consultancy organization, but isn’t this already clearly legal? No risk, no gambling. Consultants are risking their time, which is a thing of value, but I don’t think any prosecutor would ever go after a market on those grounds.

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