The concept of probabilistic prediction explained to the journalists and bloggers
Chris F. Masse February 25th, 2008
How to quote Hubdub
As well as being a fun place for people to make their own predictions, Hubdub also provides real value to anyone looking for numerical forecasts of the way a news story will turn out. At its core, Hubdub is a prediction market, which means the probabilities given for any of the hundreds of news stories we track are a combination of the thousands of pieces of information brought to bear on each question by our users. While Hubdub is still a young service building a track record of the accuracy of its forecasts, similar prediction markets (both play and real money) have found a very strong relationship between the forecast chances and reality. When quoting one of our forecasts, the correct terminology is to describe the percentage as a “percent chance” or “probability”, not what a percentage of our users think, as this is not what is measured. For example, “Hubdub is forecasting that Obama has a 67% chance of getting the nomination” is correct, whereas “67% of Hubdub users forecast that Obama will win the nomination” is incorrect. If in doubt please contact us.
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