http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/05/how-political-prediction-markets-save-lives/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/05/how-political-prediction-markets-save-lives/#comment-16814 Chris. F. Masse Tue, 05 Feb 2008 15:17:53 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/05/how-political-prediction-markets-save-lives/#comment-16814 Yes, I agree with Mike that it is an interesting angle. (Remember that EJSS studied psychology as part of his PhD, if my memory is correct.) Yes, I agree with Mike that it is an interesting angle. (Remember that EJSS studied psychology as part of his PhD, if my memory is correct.)

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/05/how-political-prediction-markets-save-lives/#comment-16813 Michael Giberson Tue, 05 Feb 2008 14:50:51 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/05/how-political-prediction-markets-save-lives/#comment-16813 Interesting angle. Tim Harford was on the Colbert Report the other day -- Harford has a new book out -- explaining why a person planning to vote the next day and also buy a new stereo would rationally read up on the stereo before shopping and just vote based on gut feelings. . You are suggesting that at least a part of the stress over elections and political outcomes can be carved off and made into more of a shopping event, rather than simple voting. . The person's vote will be no more likely to affect the outcome of the election, but their prediction market trading will be completely under their control. . You might be right, though I'd stress the possible stress benefits over 'saving lives.' My guess is that the effect on mortality rates would be vanishingly small. Interesting angle. Tim Harford was on the Colbert Report the other day — Harford has a new book out — explaining why a person planning to vote the next day and also buy a new stereo would rationally read up on the stereo before shopping and just vote based on gut feelings.
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You are suggesting that at least a part of the stress over elections and political outcomes can be carved off and made into more of a shopping event, rather than simple voting.
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The person’s vote will be no more likely to affect the outcome of the election, but their prediction market trading will be completely under their control.
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You might be right, though I’d stress the possible stress benefits over ‘saving lives.’ My guess is that the effect on mortality rates would be vanishingly small.

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