Comments on: NewsFutures do *NOT* favor event derivative management by traders. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16787 Chris. F. Masse Thu, 31 Jan 2008 13:39:59 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16787 Apology, mister EJSS. . When and if you make a formal announcement about all this, tip me and I will re-publish it on MO. Sounds interesting... . Many other people will interested to know all this... If that turns out straight... Apology, mister EJSS.
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When and if you make a formal announcement about all this, tip me and I will re-publish it on MO. Sounds interesting…
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Many other people will interested to know all this… If that turns out straight…

]]> By: Emile Servan-Schreiber http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16786 Emile Servan-Schreiber Thu, 31 Jan 2008 11:33:52 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16786 Chris, you misunderstand the process. Once vetted, an NF admin has full direct control of market listings and closings, with no middle man, especially not me! Chris, you misunderstand the process. Once vetted, an NF admin has full direct control of market listings and closings, with no middle man, especially not me!

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16785 Chris. F. Masse Thu, 31 Jan 2008 11:17:42 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16785 The problem with that analogical approach (e-mailing EJSS each time you have an idea) is that our good doctor is very busy and doesn't always reply to e-mails. (Same for Adam Siegel and David Perry, or others at real-money exchanges.) . That's why I would favor an automatic approach, with some economics PhDs being "certified" by NewsFutures, and from there, being able to open and close prediction markets without EJSS' august approval. . Plenty of people love NewsFutures, and would interact more with it, but don't want to deal with EJSS. Not that they hate him, just that they like direct interactions. No middle men. The problem with that analogical approach (e-mailing EJSS each time you have an idea) is that our good doctor is very busy and doesn’t always reply to e-mails. (Same for Adam Siegel and David Perry, or others at real-money exchanges.)
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That’s why I would favor an automatic approach, with some economics PhDs being “certified” by NewsFutures, and from there, being able to open and close prediction markets without EJSS’ august approval.
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Plenty of people love NewsFutures, and would interact more with it, but don’t want to deal with EJSS. Not that they hate him, just that they like direct interactions. No middle men.

]]> By: Michael Giberson http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16782 Michael Giberson Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:08:02 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16782 Emile, I'm certainly interested in taking you up on your offer. . But I agree that you want cool markets and someone to dedicate the time necessary to properly administer the markets. It will take some thinking about market ideas and a little thinking about scheduling on my end. . I'll email you off-line and we can figure something out. Emile, I’m certainly interested in taking you up on your offer.
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But I agree that you want cool markets and someone to dedicate the time necessary to properly administer the markets. It will take some thinking about market ideas and a little thinking about scheduling on my end.
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I’ll email you off-line and we can figure something out.

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16775 Chris. F. Masse Wed, 30 Jan 2008 15:53:43 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16775 1. Emile, if you want this information to be published on a Midas Oracle post, let me know (or do it yourself, or publish that on NewsFutures and I'll re-publish here, whatever you want). . 2. Speaking for me (not for Mike G. or anyone else), I wonder whether some new markets may be of interest to the Midas Oracle readers (and of course the existing NewsFutures traders). Not necessarily about the prediction market industry. . Ideally, it should fit into my "advanced indicators" framework... http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/news-aggregation-prediction-markets/ . If one day I have a special idea, I'll tell you. . It should be a socially valuable prediction market, but also a market that provides some fun... Let me think... . [EJSS managed to trap me. I have to prove I can be creatively useful, now. Horse of another color than just blogging.] 1. Emile, if you want this information to be published on a Midas Oracle post, let me know (or do it yourself, or publish that on NewsFutures and I’ll re-publish here, whatever you want).
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2. Speaking for me (not for Mike G. or anyone else), I wonder whether some new markets may be of interest to the Midas Oracle readers (and of course the existing NewsFutures traders). Not necessarily about the prediction market industry.
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Ideally, it should fit into my “advanced indicators” framework…
http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/news-aggregation-prediction-markets/
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If one day I have a special idea, I’ll tell you.
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It should be a socially valuable prediction market, but also a market that provides some fun… Let me think…
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[EJSS managed to trap me. I have to prove I can be creatively useful, now. Horse of another color than just blogging.]

]]> By: Emile Servan-Schreiber http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16774 Emile Servan-Schreiber Wed, 30 Jan 2008 15:42:43 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16774 I don't think anyone needs a Ph.D. in economics or any other field to be a great market manager. For instance, check out the profile of NF's chief public markets admin: http://us.newsfutures.com/home/people.html#don. I'm ready to extend market-admin access on NF to anyone who is passionate enough about PMs and some specific issues to create some cool markets and spend the time needed to administer them seriously. Obviously, this can't be an automatic process, and I'd do the vetting myself. By creating/managing markets on NF you'd gain instant access to one of the largest, most experienced, most international crowd of prediction traders. Ad-revenue sharing deals are possible too. I don’t think anyone needs a Ph.D. in economics or any other field to be a great market manager. For instance, check out the profile of NF’s chief public markets admin: http://us.newsfutures.com/home/people.html#don.

I’m ready to extend market-admin access on NF to anyone who is passionate enough about PMs and some specific issues to create some cool markets and spend the time needed to administer them seriously. Obviously, this can’t be an automatic process, and I’d do the vetting myself.

By creating/managing markets on NF you’d gain instant access to one of the largest, most experienced, most international crowd of prediction traders. Ad-revenue sharing deals are possible too.

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16771 Chris. F. Masse Wed, 30 Jan 2008 15:21:47 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16771 Either Inkling Markets and HubDub should do CDA or NewsFutures should let people manage event derivatives from A to Z. . Hey, Giberson Incorporated, will you take on EJSS's proposal? Either Inkling Markets and HubDub should do CDA or NewsFutures should let people manage event derivatives from A to Z.
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Hey, Giberson Incorporated, will you take on EJSS’s proposal?

]]> By: Michael Giberson http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16770 Michael Giberson Wed, 30 Jan 2008 15:14:45 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16770 I agree with Chris that there is value in more or less immediate/direct user created markets, even though it results in some of the problems that Emile identifies. There is little "coherence" to the Inkling exchange in the way Emile means - while the underlying technology is standard across the markets, at the content level there is a large diversity. Some complicated markets are well defined and some simple markets are poorly set up. Market coverage of standard topics like politics and sports is somewhat scattershot. As I put it once before, I like it in part because it gives the place a bazaar like feeling. No one calls a bazaar coherent - coherence is maybe an attribute of a department store or mall. Unlike Chris, however, I don't necessarily think NewsFutures needs to become more like Inkling, or Inkling needs to become more like NewsFutures. There is room for many approaches, particularly as we are early in the development of online prediction markets. I agree with Chris that there is value in more or less immediate/direct user created markets, even though it results in some of the problems that Emile identifies.

There is little “coherence” to the Inkling exchange in the way Emile means – while the underlying technology is standard across the markets, at the content level there is a large diversity. Some complicated markets are well defined and some simple markets are poorly set up. Market coverage of standard topics like politics and sports is somewhat scattershot.

As I put it once before, I like it in part because it gives the place a bazaar like feeling. No one calls a bazaar coherent – coherence is maybe an attribute of a department store or mall.

Unlike Chris, however, I don’t necessarily think NewsFutures needs to become more like Inkling, or Inkling needs to become more like NewsFutures. There is room for many approaches, particularly as we are early in the development of online prediction markets.

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16769 Chris. F. Masse Wed, 30 Jan 2008 15:14:17 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16769 Emile, would you extend your invitation to *any* PhD in economics who has a good knowledge of the prediction market field? Emile, would you extend your invitation to *any* PhD in economics who has a good knowledge of the prediction market field?

]]> By: Emile Servan-Schreiber http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16768 Emile Servan-Schreiber Wed, 30 Jan 2008 15:10:16 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/29/newsfutures-do-not-favor-event-derivative-management-by-traders/#comment-16768 That's an excellent idea. If Michael would like to create/manage his markets on NewsFutures or Bet2Give, or both, I'd happily give him admin access. What say you, Michael? That’s an excellent idea. If Michael would like to create/manage his markets on NewsFutures or Bet2Give, or both, I’d happily give him admin access. What say you, Michael?

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