The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby

Caveat Bettor January 25th, 2008

If Clinton or Edwards wins, Zogby will be declared the winner. If any other candidate wins, the contest will be called as a draw. The Intrade snapshot was taken at 2:20pm today.

Details posted at Caveat Bettor.

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One Response to “The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby”

# Chris. F. Masse on 26 Jan 2008 at 2:59 am

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Jed points out the weakest point of my Intrade v. Zogby Showdown contests: Intrade contracts are winner-take-all, while Zogby poll statistics are linear probabilities. I attempt to normalize the “predictiveness” between them by looking first at the clear leader, if there is one, and then compare candidate probabilties to break ties. I also take snapshots on the eve of each election, a T-1 approach.

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