Comments on: The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/25/the-democrat-sc-showdown-intrade-v-zogby/ Prediction Markets For All Mon, 01 Dec 2008 19:47:13 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/25/the-democrat-sc-showdown-intrade-v-zogby/#comment-16733 Chris. F. Masse Sat, 26 Jan 2008 07:59:32 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/25/the-democrat-sc-showdown-intrade-v-zogby/#comment-16733 QUOTE <blockquote>Jed points out the weakest point of my Intrade v. Zogby Showdown contests: Intrade contracts are winner-take-all, while Zogby poll statistics are linear probabilities. I attempt to normalize the "predictiveness" between them by looking first at the clear leader, if there is one, and then compare candidate probabilties to break ties. I also take snapshots on the eve of each election, a T-1 approach.</blockquote> UNQUOTE http://caveatbettor.blogspot.com/2008/01/jed-christiansen-with-fanastic-primer.html QUOTE

Jed points out the weakest point of my Intrade v. Zogby Showdown contests: Intrade contracts are winner-take-all, while Zogby poll statistics are linear probabilities. I attempt to normalize the “predictiveness” between them by looking first at the clear leader, if there is one, and then compare candidate probabilties to break ties. I also take snapshots on the eve of each election, a T-1 approach.

UNQUOTE
http://caveatbettor.blogspot.c.....rimer.html

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