Fundamentals of Prediction Markets: Probabilities, Prediction Timescale, and Absolute & Relative Accuracy
Chris F. Masse January 25th, 2008
Jed Christiansen outputs the best explainer on prediction markets I’ve seen in years. Go read it.
- Fundamentals of Prediction Markets
- Different types of Prediction Markets
- Problem #1 – Understanding Probabilities
- Problem #2 – Prediction timescale
- Problem #3 – Assessing accuracy
- Problem #4 - Compared to what?
- Summary – How have the political prediction markets really performed?
- All Best Posts Ever , Analysis (Meta) , Explainers
- Comments(1)
Yes. Now, the objective is to put it under the very nose of the skeptics.
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Maybe I will send it to some people.
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Hey, get yourself a gravatar.
http://www.gravatar.com/