Fundamentals of Prediction Markets: Probabilities, Prediction Timescale, and Absolute & Relative Accuracy | Midas Oracle .ORG

Fundamentals of Prediction Markets: Probabilities, Prediction Timescale, and Absolute & Relative Accuracy

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 25, 2008 — 1 Comment

Jed Christiansen outputs the best explainer on prediction markets I’ve seen in years. Go read it.

- Fundamentals of Prediction Markets
- Different types of Prediction Markets
- Problem #1 – Understanding Probabilities
- Problem #2 – Prediction timescale
- Problem #3 – Assessing accuracy
- Problem #4 – Compared to what?
- Summary – How have the political prediction markets really performed?

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Explainers | Tagged accuracy, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Jed Christiansen, prediction markets, probabilities

1 Comment to “Fundamentals of Prediction Markets: Probabilities, Prediction Timescale, and Absolute & Relative Accuracy”

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Chris. F. Masse

January 26, 2008 at 8:50 AM | Permalink

Yes. Now, the objective is to put it under the very nose of the skeptics.
.
Maybe I will send it to some people.
.
Hey, get yourself a gravatar.
http://www.gravatar.com/

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