Fundamentals of Prediction Markets: Probabilities, Prediction Timescale, and Absolute & Relative Accuracy

Jed Christiansen outputs the best explainer on prediction markets I’ve seen in years. Go read it.

- Fundamentals of Prediction Markets
- Different types of Prediction Markets
- Problem #1 – Understanding Probabilities
- Problem #2 – Prediction timescale
- Problem #3 – Assessing accuracy
- Problem #4 – Compared to what?
- Summary – How have the political prediction markets really performed?