UPDATE: I just got it that Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams’s story and the BetFair compound chart published on top of his story should be understood independently from each other, as this chart was pasted there by the BetFair blog editor.
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Let’s re-visit the Michigan primary (BetFair edition) story, now.
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Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams on the official BetFair blog:
[...] Those taking the same advice on Tuesday evening [2008-01-15 = date of the Michigan primary] were similarly well rewarded as well-backed Mitt Romney stormed into clear favouritism in the markets and a comfortable victory at the polls. After a blip in the New Hampshire Democratic primary the old certainties – that election favourites tend to win elections – was re-established.
As in the Republican New Hampshire primary, the polls and pundits had declared the race between Senator McCain and Governor Romney as a toss-up while the betting markets pointed to a comfortable victory in both cases for the eventual winners. Once again, in the battle of the polls, pundits and markets, the power of the betting markets to assimilate the collective knowledge and wisdom of the crowd had prevailed. [...]
And, now, here’s the bad-usability, compound chart (which I over-looked, at the time):
[For your information, Mitt Romney won the Michigan primary, on the Republican side.]
And here’s a short excerpt of Niall O’Connor’s comment:
But where is the alleged surge of support for Romney reflected? [...]
When is it that this BetFair chart was taken? At what time on January 15? Before or after the Michigan elections?
Also, it is quite possible that professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams does not mean solely BetFair when he says “betting markets”. At times, in the past, he made up his own cocktail of bookmaker odds, spread-betting bookmaker odds, spread-betting exchange odds, and betting exchange odds.
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UPDATE: I just got it that Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams’s story and the BetFair compound chart published on top of his story should be understood independently from each other, as this chart was pasted there by the BetFair blog editor.
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UPDATE: The BetFair blog has added a new label on the infamous compound chart…
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NEXT: Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFair’s accuracy??
