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← The BetFair blog claims a worldwide victory.
Swarchy – Unleashing the mass wisdom →

Prediction markets are rushing to incorporate the latest Nevada polls. [*]

Posted on January 18, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Alice in Wonderland - The Rabbit

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Polls: Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney.

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The Hillary Clinton event derivative has just jumped to 61%, but this price/probability is not yet reflected in the chart below —as I write this early morning, the latest price on the graph I have under my very nose is 40%.

Price for Nevada Democratic Caucus. Jan 19th at intrade.com

BetFair Democratic prediction markets

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Price for Nevada Republican Caucus. Jan 19th at intrade.com

BetFair Republican prediction markets

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Nevada is not listed by NewsFutures. :(

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[*] Political prediction markets feed on polls, and thus will never be the prime forecasting tools used by the political analysts.

About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
View all posts by Chris F. Masse →
This entry was posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities and tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, BetFair, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Mitt Romney, Nevada, Nevada caucus, Politics, prediction markets, prime forecasting tools, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections. Bookmark the permalink.
← The BetFair blog claims a worldwide victory.
Swarchy – Unleashing the mass wisdom →

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