Inkling Markets and NewsFutures should merge. Or play-money InTrade should let users create their own event derivative(s). Or maybe TradeFair should do it. Or Zocalo should be based on the Web. Or Greg Knaddison should pop out of his Colorado cave with something great.

Chris F. Masse January 15th, 2008

Whatever.

So we could have at least one user-managed, CDA-powered , play-money prediction exchange. (With some MSR-inspired automated market maker, maybe.) And, by the same token, thousands of little Gibersons who will create and expire new event derivatives.

I got yet another e-mail from someone requesting such a user-managed, CDA marketplace.

Tags: CDA, prediction exchange, user-managed

Analysis (Industry) , Exchanges & Markets
Comments(4)

4 Responses to “Inkling Markets and NewsFutures should merge. Or play-money InTrade should let users create their own event derivative(s). Or maybe TradeFair should do it. Or Zocalo should be based on the Web. Or Greg Knaddison should pop out of his Colorado cave with something great.”

# Greg Knaddison on 15 Jan 2008 at 5:47 am

Well, there is progress but nothing finished yet: updates are being posted at http://openpredictionmarkets.org/

Chris Hibbert (Zocalo Developer) has been kind enough to follow the progress and provide advice which is quite valuable.
# Robin Hanson on 15 Jan 2008 at 2:49 pm

So what is wrong with the Foresight Exachange? Since 1994 it has been CDA based and lets users create their own claims.
# Chris. F. Masse on 15 Jan 2008 at 3:20 pm

Nothing wrong about the Foresight Exchange. The creator of the event derivative is not allowed to expire it, right? I’m gonna e-mail KK to ask.
# Chris. F. Masse on 28 Jan 2008 at 12:31 pm

Ken Kittlitz:
QUOTE
You’re correct, the owner of an FX claim must find a different FX player to act as the judge. This is largely to ensure that at least more than one person thinks the claim is worth having.
UNQUOTE
(Ken Kittlitz is the head of the Foresight Exchange.)