http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/ Prediction Markets For All Mon, 01 Dec 2008 22:24:05 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/#comment-22005 Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets — REDUX | Midas Oracle .ORG Mon, 06 Oct 2008 06:35:36 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/#comment-22005 [...] Robin Hanson: [...] [...] Robin Hanson: [...]

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/#comment-21966 Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets | Midas Oracle .ORG Fri, 03 Oct 2008 08:05:39 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/#comment-21966 [...] Robin Hanson: [...] [...] Robin Hanson: [...]

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/#comment-21887 Information Value of Enterprise Prediction Markets | Midas Oracle .ORG Thu, 25 Sep 2008 16:10:57 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/#comment-21887 [...] Chris F. Masse September 25th, 2008 Robin Hanson: [...] [...] Chris F. Masse September 25th, 2008 Robin Hanson: [...]

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/#comment-17704 Info Value = the added accuracy the markets provide relative to other mechanisms, times the value that accuracy can give in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining the markets, relative to the cost of other mechanisms. | Midas Oracle .ORG Thu, 27 Mar 2008 07:59:37 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/#comment-17704 [...] Robin Hanson: A highly accurate market has little value if other mechanisms can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic. [...] [...] Robin Hanson: A highly accurate market has little value if other mechanisms can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic. [...]

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/#comment-17701 A highly accurate prediction market has little value if other mechanisms can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic. | Midas Oracle .ORG Thu, 27 Mar 2008 07:47:51 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/#comment-17701 [...] Robin Hanson: Info Value = the added accuracy the markets provide relative to other mechanisms, times the value that accuracy can give in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining the markets, relative to the cost of other mechanisms. [...] [...] Robin Hanson: Info Value = the added accuracy the markets provide relative to other mechanisms, times the value that accuracy can give in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining the markets, relative to the cost of other mechanisms. [...]

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/#comment-17690 Chris F. Masse Wed, 26 Mar 2008 16:54:40 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/#comment-17690 Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work? http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/03/26/google-enterprise-prediction-markets-4/ Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work?
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....markets-4/

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/#comment-16685 Robin Hanson Mon, 14 Jan 2008 20:41:34 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/#comment-16685 Chris, you should be more interested in info value, which is the added accuracy the markets provide relative to other mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining the markets, relative to the cost of other mechanisms. A highly accurate market has little value if other mechanisms can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic. Chris, you should be more interested in info value, which is the added accuracy the markets provide relative to other mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining the markets, relative to the cost of other mechanisms. A highly accurate market has little value if other mechanisms can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/#comment-16684 Michael Giberson Mon, 14 Jan 2008 20:04:39 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/have-googles-enterprise-prediction-markets-been-accurate/#comment-16684 I'm on record as thinking that more research is needed about enterprise prediction markets and the flow of information inside organizations. See, for example, my post here at Midas Oracle last October, titled, <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/03/prediction-markets-and-the-flow-of-information-inside-organizations/" rel="nofollow">Prediction markets and the flow of information inside organizations</a>. That post was more oriented toward information flows up/down the corporate hierarchy. The Cowgill/Wolfers/Zitzewitz paper doesn't address this particular issue, but the results are interesting nonetheless. . I agree with Chris (and Robin Hanson's view expressed in the related Marginal Revolution post comments) that "prediction market accuracy" is the big money issue. The Google paper only hints at the answer through the discussion of bias. The authors could have said more. . But while the accuracy issue remains significant, I see that as no reason that every prediction market paper has to focus on that issue. <em>The Google paper helps broaden and deepen the literature on enterprise prediction markets by digging into new issues.</em> I’m on record as thinking that more research is needed about enterprise prediction markets and the flow of information inside organizations. See, for example, my post here at Midas Oracle last October, titled, Prediction markets and the flow of information inside organizations. That post was more oriented toward information flows up/down the corporate hierarchy. The Cowgill/Wolfers/Zitzewitz paper doesn’t address this particular issue, but the results are interesting nonetheless.
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I agree with Chris (and Robin Hanson’s view expressed in the related Marginal Revolution post comments) that “prediction market accuracy” is the big money issue. The Google paper only hints at the answer through the discussion of bias. The authors could have said more.
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But while the accuracy issue remains significant, I see that as no reason that every prediction market paper has to focus on that issue. The Google paper helps broaden and deepen the literature on enterprise prediction markets by digging into new issues.

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