http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/10/new-hampshire-is-just-another-pentagon-moment-for-political-prediction-markets/ Prediction Markets For All Mon, 01 Dec 2008 20:29:57 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/10/new-hampshire-is-just-another-pentagon-moment-for-political-prediction-markets/#comment-16671 Jason Ruspini Thu, 10 Jan 2008 23:37:07 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/10/new-hampshire-is-just-another-pentagon-moment-for-political-prediction-markets/#comment-16671 Michael, I generally agree but maybe we should use this episode to re-galvanize a push for legal prediction markets in the US. Michael, I generally agree but maybe we should use this episode to re-galvanize a push for legal prediction markets in the US.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/10/new-hampshire-is-just-another-pentagon-moment-for-political-prediction-markets/#comment-16669 Chris. F. Masse Thu, 10 Jan 2008 23:08:12 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/10/new-hampshire-is-just-another-pentagon-moment-for-political-prediction-markets/#comment-16669 I hate to say that, but you could be right coz I see many bloggers coming to the defense of the prediction markets. See my updated list here: http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/10/prediction-market-industry-association-useless-so-far/ I hate to say that, but you could be right coz I see many bloggers coming to the defense of the prediction markets. See my updated list here:
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....ss-so-far/

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/10/new-hampshire-is-just-another-pentagon-moment-for-political-prediction-markets/#comment-16654 Michael Giberson Thu, 10 Jan 2008 14:17:17 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/10/new-hampshire-is-just-another-pentagon-moment-for-political-prediction-markets/#comment-16654 True, people looking for magical devices will go elsewhere, but that is okay. . People willing to spend money to improve their forecasts, they are the people to appeal to. Sure, some of these people also hope for a magical tool to make uncertainty go "poof" and disappear, but several more practical risk takers willing to consider evidence will have prediction markets pop up on their radar screen. . I want to convince people who have practical risk and uncertainty problems and who would benefit from better tools to address that uncertainty and who will look at evidence. I don't want to be in the business of selling hokum powder and reading palms. True, people looking for magical devices will go elsewhere, but that is okay.
.
People willing to spend money to improve their forecasts, they are the people to appeal to. Sure, some of these people also hope for a magical tool to make uncertainty go “poof” and disappear, but several more practical risk takers willing to consider evidence will have prediction markets pop up on their radar screen.
.
I want to convince people who have practical risk and uncertainty problems and who would benefit from better tools to address that uncertainty and who will look at evidence. I don’t want to be in the business of selling hokum powder and reading palms.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/10/new-hampshire-is-just-another-pentagon-moment-for-political-prediction-markets/#comment-16653 Chris. F. Masse Thu, 10 Jan 2008 13:49:17 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/10/new-hampshire-is-just-another-pentagon-moment-for-political-prediction-markets/#comment-16653 "A lot of attention is being paid to prediction markets, and it looks bad, but ultimately it will turn out just fine." . When people realize that prediction markets are not magical, will they still mind them? That's the one-million-dollar question. “A lot of attention is being paid to prediction markets, and it looks bad, but ultimately it will turn out just fine.”
.
When people realize that prediction markets are not magical, will they still mind them? That’s the one-million-dollar question.

]]>