Comments on: Justin Wolfers buries Hillary Clinton under 100 feet of snow. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/08/justin-wolfers-buries-hillary-clinton-under-100-feet-of-snow/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators. | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/08/justin-wolfers-buries-hillary-clinton-under-100-feet-of-snow/#comment-18752 Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators. | Midas Oracle .ORG Tue, 20 May 2008 15:27:46 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/08/justin-wolfers-buries-hillary-clinton-under-100-feet-of-snow/#comment-18752 [...] See also Niall O’Connor’s assessment: I am looking forward to the post New Hampshire Caucus, when all you prediction market advocates crawl out from under your stones. For the record at one point the market on Intrade and Betfair was suggesting that Obama had a 95% probability of winning the caucas; whilst Intrade had him at 77% to win the nomination.A case perhaps of both the foolery of crowds and, the market biting back. [...] [...] See also Niall O’Connor’s assessment: I am looking forward to the post New Hampshire Caucus, when all you prediction market advocates crawl out from under your stones. For the record at one point the market on Intrade and Betfair was suggesting that Obama had a 95% probability of winning the caucas; whilst Intrade had him at 77% to win the nomination.A case perhaps of both the foolery of crowds and, the market biting back. [...]

]]> By: Niall O'Connor http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/08/justin-wolfers-buries-hillary-clinton-under-100-feet-of-snow/#comment-16634 Niall O'Connor Wed, 09 Jan 2008 08:20:00 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/08/justin-wolfers-buries-hillary-clinton-under-100-feet-of-snow/#comment-16634 "TRANSLATION: Hillary Clinton is finished. Done with." I am looking forward to the post New Hampshire Caucas, when all you prediction market advocates crawl out from under your stones. For the record at one point the market on Intrade and Betfair was suggesting that Obama had a 95% probability of winning the caucas; whilst Intrade had him at 77% to win the nomination. A case perhaps of both the foolery of crowds and, the market biting back. New Hampshire will go down as the Black Wednesday of Prediction markets and unless there is now objective transparent debate (as opposed to the usual biased sabre rattling) - prediction markets will be dead in the water. “TRANSLATION: Hillary Clinton is finished. Done with.”

I am looking forward to the post New Hampshire Caucas, when all you prediction market advocates crawl out from under your stones. For the record at one point the market on Intrade and Betfair was suggesting that Obama had a 95% probability of winning the caucas; whilst Intrade had him at 77% to win the nomination.

A case perhaps of both the foolery of crowds and, the market biting back.

New Hampshire will go down as the Black Wednesday of Prediction markets and unless there is now objective transparent debate (as opposed to the usual biased sabre rattling) – prediction markets will be dead in the water.

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