The Iowa Showdown: Zogby v. Intrade

Posted on January 2, 2008 by Caveat Bettor

Intrade Zogby Candidate

30% 28% Clinton
54% 28% Obama
16% 26% Edwards
0% 7% Richardson
0% 4% Biden
0% 1% Dodd
0% 1% Kucinich
0% FIELD
5% Undecided

53% 28% Huckabee
43% 26% Romney
1% 12% McCain
0% 12% Thompson
0% 7% Giuliani
0% 9% Paul
0% 1% Hunter
3% FIELD
5% Undecided

Zogby data is here. Intrade data taken at 9:30pm EST.

Cross posted from Caveat Bettor.

About Caveat Bettor

Prediction Market Trader (and a Proprietary Trader and Risk Manager, working for a few investment banks for more than 20 years) - North America
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4 Responses to The Iowa Showdown: Zogby v. Intrade

  1. Mike Linksvayer says:
    January 3, 2008 at 1:09 AM

    Apples and oranges, or in this case probability of victory and vote distribution.

    And 0% in the Intrade column for candidates that don’t have a contract is not accurate. Instead there should be an asterik denoting “included in FIELD”.

  2. Caveat Bettor says:
    January 3, 2008 at 12:10 PM

    Mike: Good catch. I think you will find my representation at my blog more accurate. My puny Blogger skills do not translate well here in WordPress land.

  3. Mike Linksvayer says:
    January 3, 2008 at 1:36 PM

    Caveat, the representation at your blog is just formatted nicer. It has the same problems.

  4. Caveat Bettor says:
    January 3, 2008 at 5:47 PM

    I got Mike, thanks. I’ll improve the next time around.

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