Mike Smithson publishes info showing UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s decision to call off a general election was known to some bettors before that decision was made public. And he concludes:
One of the risks of political betting is that at times you can be gambling against those who are “in the knowâ€. There’s nothing illegal about it but if price movements on the scale recorded on that afternoon had happened on the stock market ahead of a big announcement then an inquiry would have surely followed.
Yeah, but we would like our prediction markets to be the best forecasting tool ever (besides being a fun game and a profitable money machine). So we all favor insider trading on event derivative markets, don’t we, Mike Giberson? [Trick to make this economist write for Midas Oracle, for free. 
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