NBC News Tim Russert (the host of Meet The Press) would have not expired the Larry Craig contract too early.

Chris F. Masse December 26th, 2007

“[I]t is my intent to resign from the Senate, effective September 30 [2007]“, said US Senator Larry Craig. (Important note: In that same output, he did not say that he would not seek another term.) Based on this vague statement (”it’s my intent to resign”), InTrade should have not expired the Larry Craig Exit contract. They made a big mistake, once again. InTrade should have expired the contract, later on, when Larry Craig specifically said that he was not seeking reelection —which was one of the two conditions for the InTrade contract to be expired (the first one was resignation).

As of today, Larry Craig is still a member of the US Senate, till November 2008. He did not resigned. What happened, from his first statement highlighted in the first sentence above, is that he later changed his mind —which we are all entitled to do under any Constitution, of course.

To say “I intent to” means nothing, as Larry Craig said privately to his lawyer, and as veteran Tim Russert knows too well:

MR. RUSSERT: If, if you do not win the Republican nomination for president, will you run as an independent in 2008?

REP. PAUL: I have no intention to do that.

MR. RUSSERT: Absolute promise.

REP. PAUL: I have no intention of doing that.

MR. RUSSERT: Well, but “no intention” is a wiggle word.

REP. PAUL: Well, OK, I deserve one wiggle now and then, Tim. I mean, what the devil…

MR. RUSSERT: So no–so no Shermanesque statement.

REP. PAUL: You know, I…

MR. RUSSERT: “I will not run as an independent.”

REP. PAUL: Well, I can be pretty darned sure that I have no intention, no plans of doing it, and that’s about 99.9 percent. I don’t like people who are such absolutists, “I will never do this, or I will win, I’m going to come in first.” I don’t like those absolutists terms in politics.

MR. RUSSERT: But the door’s open a little bit.

REP. PAUL: Not very much. It really isn’t. I, I don’t–Tim, we just raised $10 million in two days. We haven’t even had a race, we have February 5th coming up. We have a campaign to run. Why–do you ask all the other–how many other candidates have you asked, “Are you going to run as a third party candidate if you don’t win?” Have you asked John McCain that?

MR. RUSSERT: Well, if someone has a history of running as a third party candidate, sure. You ran in ‘88 as a Libertarian.

REP. PAUL: Yeah, well, I know…

MR. RUSSERT: It’s a logical question.

REP. PAUL: …but there are independents. So I–ask them, too.

MR. RUSSERT: I will.