Media Predict pretend to be able to forecast the next hits.

Chris F. Masse December 12th, 2007

[...] As we so often note at Media Predict, content decisions have historically rested in the hands of select individuals – who unfortunately have an exaggerated confidence in their own tastes. Year in and year out, in media less than 10 percent of the product line generates 90 percent or more of revenue. Elite tastemakers simply can’t consistently predict what will work with millions of consumers – no more than they can levitate or perform telekinesis. [...]

So when it comes to repackaging user-generated content for the mainstream, old media needs new ways to read the tea leaves. Media Predict, clearly, seeks to provide that accurate indicator – and in light of twenty years of evidence supporting the overwhelming power of prediction markets, no other tool promises to meet the task quite so well.

I’m with Brent Stinski when it comes to trusting the prediction markets a little more than the publishers’ executives and managers. However, that does not mean that old media executives are going to change their decision-making modus operandi and outsource their decisions to Media Predict.

Brent Stinski forgets to take into account the business people’s egos, in his reasoning. Why would the publishers’ executives and managers strip themselves of power in favor of a crowd machine if the added benefit is marginal?
Both experts and prediction markets are not able to forecast the next hits, because there are no advanced indicators of future content popularity. Period. It’s impossible to predict who the next Beatles or Rolling Stones will be. And J.K. Rowlings (a poor single mum, then) came out of nowhere.

Tags: decision making, decision-aid markets, Media Predict