Comments on: InTrade’s global warming prediction markets are more socially interesting than BetFair’s ones. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/12/08/intrades-global-warming-prediction-markets-are-more-socially-interesting-than-betfairs-ones/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/12/08/intrades-global-warming-prediction-markets-are-more-socially-interesting-than-betfairs-ones/#comment-16552 Chris. F. Masse Sat, 08 Dec 2007 20:11:08 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/12/08/intrades-global-warming-prediction-markets-are-more-socially-interesting-than-betfairs-ones/#comment-16552 Mike, excellent points. I agree 100% with you. Mike, excellent points. I agree 100% with you.

]]> By: Mike Linksvayer http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/12/08/intrades-global-warming-prediction-markets-are-more-socially-interesting-than-betfairs-ones/#comment-16551 Mike Linksvayer Sat, 08 Dec 2007 20:03:01 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/12/08/intrades-global-warming-prediction-markets-are-more-socially-interesting-than-betfairs-ones/#comment-16551 They'd be even more interesting if offered in combination with electoral outcomes and more yet if offered in combination with climate outcomes. I'm happy to see BINLADEN+MUSHARRAF contracts recently added, but volume is almost nil. Intrade (or someone new) will need better technology to be really socially interesting -- be a source of many contingent probabilities. Many explicit combination contracts is just unworkable. I'm also happy to see Intrade offering several multi-year contracts, of which the climate ones are a good example. I believe the Google Lunar contract is currently the longest term one, expiring in 2012. I'm rooting for Intrade and for something better to come along, simultaneously. :) They’d be even more interesting if offered in combination with electoral outcomes and more yet if offered in combination with climate outcomes.

I’m happy to see BINLADEN+MUSHARRAF contracts recently added, but volume is almost nil.

Intrade (or someone new) will need better technology to be really socially interesting — be a source of many contingent probabilities. Many explicit combination contracts is just unworkable.

I’m also happy to see Intrade offering several multi-year contracts, of which the climate ones are a good example. I believe the Google Lunar contract is currently the longest term one, expiring in 2012.

I’m rooting for Intrade and for something better to come along, simultaneously. :)

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