Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Pat Buchanan laments the end of WASP America.

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State Of Emergency - Pat Buchanan

Drudge Report:

  • Pax Americana, the era of U.S. global dominance, is over. A struggle for global hegemony has begun among the United States, China, a resurgent Russia and radical Islam.
  • Bush’s invasion of Iraq was a product of hubris and of ideology, a secular religion of democratism, to which Bush was converted in the days following 9/11.
  • Torn asunder by a culture war, America has now begun to break down along class, ethnic and racial lines.
  • The greatest threat to U.S. sovereignty and independence is the scheme of a global elite to erase America’s borders and merge the USA, Mexico and Canada into a North American Union.
  • Free trade is shipping jobs, factories and technology to China and plunging America into permanent dependency and unpayable debt. One of every six U.S. manufacturing jobs vanished under Bush.
  • Sovereign Wealth Funds, controlled by foreign regimes and stuffed with trillions of dollars from U.S. trade deficits, are buying up strategic corporate assets vital to America’s security.
  • As U.S. wages are stagnant, corporate CEOs are raking in rising pay and benefits 400 to 500 times that of their workers.
  • The Third World invasion through Mexico is a graver threat to our survival as one nation than anything happening in Afghanistan or Iraq.
  • European-Americans, 89% of the nation when JFK took the oath, are now 66% and sinking. Before 2050, America is a Third World nation.
  • By 2060, America will add 167 million people and 105 million immigrants will be here, triple the 37 million today.
  • Hispanics will be over 100 million in 2050 and concentrated in a Southwest most Mexicans believe belongs to them.

There’s matter here for long-term prediction markets.

1 Comment to Pat Buchanan laments the end of WASP America.

  1. November 26, 2007 at 9:13 AM | Permalink

    It would be a real public service to run well-conceived prediction markets based on the grandiose political pronouncements of the ‘chattering classes.’

    Get the book author to cooperate in specifying a handful of significant, meaningful, testable claims that are discussed in the book. Get the publisher to subsidize the market maker (on the theory that the resulting publicity will sell more books). Let the author put his money where his mouth is.

    Assume Buchanan expects to make in excess of $100,000 in royalties from his book. Can he find 10 well defined claims that he is willing to bet, say, $2,000 on?

    Even if his book is complete nonsense and he turns out wrong on every single one of his 10 claims, he’d still have over $80,000 in income from his nonsensical ramblings about “loss of sovereignty” and manufacturing jobs “vanishing”.

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