Comments on: Austan Goolsbee on Iraq and the Collective Wisdom of Bond Markets http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/11/11/austan-goolsbee-on-iraq-and-the-collective-wisdom-of-bond-markets/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/11/11/austan-goolsbee-on-iraq-and-the-collective-wisdom-of-bond-markets/#comment-16481 Jason Ruspini Tue, 13 Nov 2007 00:25:50 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/11/11/austan-goolsbee-on-iraq-and-the-collective-wisdom-of-bond-markets/#comment-16481 Although I still have not read the paper, it is argued that bond prices missed the outbreak of World War I: http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/23/black-swan-predicting-world-war-i/ For what it's worth, the New York Times did cite Gettysburg as cause for a rally in stocks as the battle was being resolved. Although I still have not read the paper, it is argued that bond prices missed the outbreak of World War I:

http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/23/black-swan-predicting-world-war-i/

For what it’s worth, the New York Times did cite Gettysburg as cause for a rally in stocks as the battle was being resolved.

]]> By: Michael Giberson http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/11/11/austan-goolsbee-on-iraq-and-the-collective-wisdom-of-bond-markets/#comment-16475 Michael Giberson Mon, 12 Nov 2007 13:14:07 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/11/11/austan-goolsbee-on-iraq-and-the-collective-wisdom-of-bond-markets/#comment-16475 What I was curious about, but didn't have time to research, was whether anyone has published articles on the predictive power of, say, the Confederate cotton bond market. Was the turn in the market after a key event in the war accompanied by other similarly correct-in-hindsight-so-it-looks-predictive moves, or was the Gettysburg turn in the market just lucky? What did the cotton bonds pay out in the end? Anything? If anyone knows this literature and can give me a pointer, please post a comment. What I was curious about, but didn’t have time to research, was whether anyone has published articles on the predictive power of, say, the Confederate cotton bond market. Was the turn in the market after a key event in the war accompanied by other similarly correct-in-hindsight-so-it-looks-predictive moves, or was the Gettysburg turn in the market just lucky? What did the cotton bonds pay out in the end? Anything?

If anyone knows this literature and can give me a pointer, please post a comment.

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