http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/24/2008-race-robin-hansons-conditional-probabilities-analysis/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/24/2008-race-robin-hansons-conditional-probabilities-analysis/#comment-16379 Eric Crampton Wed, 24 Oct 2007 22:03:43 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/24/2008-race-robin-hansons-conditional-probabilities-analysis/#comment-16379 Ah, sorry. It's a 10 cent fee on a $10 contract, so the fees are a much larger percentage of expected winnings if you're shorting at $9.50, but there's still a bit of room there. Ah, sorry. It’s a 10 cent fee on a $10 contract, so the fees are a much larger percentage of expected winnings if you’re shorting at $9.50, but there’s still a bit of room there.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/24/2008-race-robin-hansons-conditional-probabilities-analysis/#comment-16378 Eric Crampton Wed, 24 Oct 2007 21:31:51 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/24/2008-race-robin-hansons-conditional-probabilities-analysis/#comment-16378 InTrade charges a 5 cent expiration fee on in-the-running contracts, right? If so, folks shorting Edwards, Thompson, and Paul are losing money even if they're right. At current odds, there's no incentive to short the low probability events even if you think the true probability is 1% rather than 3%. Correct me if I'm wrong. InTrade charges a 5 cent expiration fee on in-the-running contracts, right? If so, folks shorting Edwards, Thompson, and Paul are losing money even if they’re right. At current odds, there’s no incentive to short the low probability events even if you think the true probability is 1% rather than 3%. Correct me if I’m wrong.

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