Meta
-
Recent Posts
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
2008 race: Robin Hanson’s conditional probabilities analysis
This entry was posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities and tagged prediction markets, Robin Hanson. Bookmark the permalink.
2 Responses to 2008 race: Robin Hanson’s conditional probabilities analysis
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.

InTrade charges a 5 cent expiration fee on in-the-running contracts, right? If so, folks shorting Edwards, Thompson, and Paul are losing money even if they’re right. At current odds, there’s no incentive to short the low probability events even if you think the true probability is 1% rather than 3%. Correct me if I’m wrong.
Ah, sorry. It’s a 10 cent fee on a $10 contract, so the fees are a much larger percentage of expected winnings if you’re shorting at $9.50, but there’s still a bit of room there.