2008 race: Robin Hanson’s conditional probabilities analysis
2008 race: Robin Hanson’s conditional probabilities analysis
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InTrade charges a 5 cent expiration fee on in-the-running contracts, right? If so, folks shorting Edwards, Thompson, and Paul are losing money even if they’re right. At current odds, there’s no incentive to short the low probability events even if you think the true probability is 1% rather than 3%. Correct me if I’m wrong.
Ah, sorry. It’s a 10 cent fee on a $10 contract, so the fees are a much larger percentage of expected winnings if you’re shorting at $9.50, but there’s still a bit of room there.