Academics to discuss prediction market experience
Michael Giberson October 18th, 2007
According to the preliminary schedule of the 2008 American Economic Association annual meetings, some leading prediction market scholars will be gathering to discuss empirical data from prediction markets. The meetings will be held in New Orleans in early January [2008].
The “Prediction Markets–New Empirical Findings” session, organized by Eric Zitzewitz, of Stanford University Dartmouth College, is slated to include:
- BO COWGILL, Google, JUSTIN WOLFERS, University of Pennsylvania, and ERIC ZITZEWITZ, Stanford University–Prediction Markets Inside the Firm: Evidence From Google
- FORREST NELSON and PHILIP POLGREEN, University of Iowa–Predicting Flu: Prediction Markets vs. Biostatistical Models
- PAUL TETLOCK, University of Texas-Austin–Does Liquidity Affect Securities Market Efficiency?
- RICARD GIL, University of California-Santa Cruz, and STEVEN LEVITT, University of Chicago–Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup
In addition to Zitzewitz and Wolfers, paper discussants include CHARLES PLOTT, Caltech, and ROBIN HANSON, George Mason University.
Sounds like quite the party. I predict that the good times will roll.
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Mike, will you go? Would you advise me to go? I wanted to go to Koleman Strumpf’s conference, but I need a new passport, and they are too slow to deliver it.
Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup !
Do these guys work in a time warp?
The 2006 World Cup finished fifteen months ago, and studies in relation to betting market efficiency, would have been bolstered by the fact that the markets on Betfair were significantly more liquid in 2006 than they were in 2002.
Chris, perhaps this is your ticket to the conference; get the 2006
data from Betfair, set aside a couple of hours to throw together a paper, and offer to present it.
Niall O’Connor, this is a special case. Steve Levitt acknowledged on his blog that he was late posting this paper. And it’s his only paper on prediction markets, I believe, so he would come with that at an academic conference.
His paper analyzed the 2002 data from TradeSports. Of course, as you implied, BetFair had more liquid markets than TradeSports for the World Cups of Soccer since Europeans are fond of soccer (BetFair being present in Europe and Australia only and TradeSports being present in America only).
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