Comments on: Academics to discuss prediction market experience http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/18/academics-to-discuss-prediction-market-experience/ Prediction Markets For All Fri, 21 Nov 2008 11:49:59 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Where is the post-election academic conference on prediction market performance? | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/18/academics-to-discuss-prediction-market-experience/#comment-22024 Where is the post-election academic conference on prediction market performance? | Midas Oracle .ORG Tue, 07 Oct 2008 21:09:49 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/18/academics-to-discuss-prediction-market-experience/#comment-22024 [...] abstracts was April 1, 2008.) In January 2008, the American Economic Association meetings featured a panel put together by Eric Zitzewitz. The next American Economic Association meeting is in San Francisco in January, but from my scan of [...] [...] abstracts was April 1, 2008.) In January 2008, the American Economic Association meetings featured a panel put together by Eric Zitzewitz. The next American Economic Association meeting is in San Francisco in January, but from my scan of [...]

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/18/academics-to-discuss-prediction-market-experience/#comment-16352 Chris. F. Masse Fri, 19 Oct 2007 09:26:41 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/18/academics-to-discuss-prediction-market-experience/#comment-16352 Niall O'Connor, this is a special case. Steve Levitt acknowledged on his blog that he was late posting this paper. And it's his only paper on prediction markets, I believe, so he would come with that at an academic conference. His paper analyzed the 2002 data from TradeSports. Of course, as you implied, BetFair had more liquid markets than TradeSports for the World Cups of Soccer since Europeans are fond of soccer (BetFair being present in Europe and Australia only and TradeSports being present in America only). Niall O’Connor, this is a special case. Steve Levitt acknowledged on his blog that he was late posting this paper. And it’s his only paper on prediction markets, I believe, so he would come with that at an academic conference.

His paper analyzed the 2002 data from TradeSports. Of course, as you implied, BetFair had more liquid markets than TradeSports for the World Cups of Soccer since Europeans are fond of soccer (BetFair being present in Europe and Australia only and TradeSports being present in America only).

]]> By: Niall O'Connor http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/18/academics-to-discuss-prediction-market-experience/#comment-16351 Niall O'Connor Fri, 19 Oct 2007 09:20:27 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/18/academics-to-discuss-prediction-market-experience/#comment-16351 Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup ! Do these guys work in a time warp? The 2006 World Cup finished fifteen months ago, and studies in relation to betting market efficiency, would have been bolstered by the fact that the markets on Betfair were significantly more liquid in 2006 than they were in 2002. Chris, perhaps this is your ticket to the conference; get the 2006 data from Betfair, set aside a couple of hours to throw together a paper, and offer to present it. Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup !

Do these guys work in a time warp?

The 2006 World Cup finished fifteen months ago, and studies in relation to betting market efficiency, would have been bolstered by the fact that the markets on Betfair were significantly more liquid in 2006 than they were in 2002.

Chris, perhaps this is your ticket to the conference; get the 2006
data from Betfair, set aside a couple of hours to throw together a paper, and offer to present it.

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/18/academics-to-discuss-prediction-market-experience/#comment-16349 Chris. F. Masse Fri, 19 Oct 2007 06:07:47 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/18/academics-to-discuss-prediction-market-experience/#comment-16349 Mike, will you go? Would you advise me to go? I wanted to go to Koleman Strumpf's conference, but I need a new passport, and they are too slow to deliver it. Mike, will you go? Would you advise me to go? I wanted to go to Koleman Strumpf’s conference, but I need a new passport, and they are too slow to deliver it.

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