Will Al Gore win the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize?

Chris F. Masse October 11th, 2007

Here are the probabilistic predictions from two prediction exchanges (betting exchanges), the first using real money, the second using play money. (As always, I show the dynamic chart first, and then the static chart taken at the time of writing.)

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InTrade-TradeSports

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NewsFutures

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One short word on the InTrade prediction markets on the 2007 Nobel Prize in Economics. Once again, InTrade has made the mistake to list these event derivatives too late in the season, just some days before the event. That’s ridiculous. The result of this mismanagement is that there isn’t any liquidity (other than somebody, from InTrade probably, putting up a series of one-contract orders to try to create the illusion that liquidity is building).

Exchanges & Markets , Market Prices & Probabilities
Comments(2)

2 Responses to “Will Al Gore win the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize?”

# Caveat Bettor on 11 Oct 2007 at 1:46 pm

The liquidity in these Intrade Nobel Economics series is beyond pathetic. I’ve been involved in more than a third of the 29 contracts traded.

Tidy profit, though.
# Chris. F. Masse on 12 Oct 2007 at 2:03 am

Jan Egeland, a Norwegian peace mediator and former U.N. undersecretary for humanitarian affairs, said climate change is much more than an environmental issue.

“It is a question of war and peace,” said Egeland, now director of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs in Oslo. “We’re already seeing the first climate wars, in the Sahel belt of Africa.” He said nomads and herders are in conflict with farmers there because a changing climate has brought drought and a shortage of fertile lands.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap.....-Peace.php

via Niall O’Connor