InTrade and the opinionated bloggers

Childish bloggers (who seldom trade) state that they are smarter than InTrade’s probabilistic predictions, can anticipate any future moves by the prediction markets, and would profit from their smart-ass speculations.

I think I should make a policy never to make prediction market calls, after all. What I see here (from two respectable and respected bloggers) is so ludicrous I don’t want to comment on it. When I was talking about prediction market journalism, I had in mind, rather, the aggregation of news that can impact a prediction market (and the analysis of how past news had impacted it, too). Plus, other things I will detail later. I mean, give the facts to the traders (and odds observers) and let them make their own determination. And if you speculate on the future, then give a bunch of scenarios, not just one. Otherwise, you’re polluting the Internet with personal opinions that will probably not stand the test of time.