Monthly Archives: September 2007

InTrade expired the Larry Craig prediction market too early.

Posted on September 27, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

New York Times: “Today was a major step in the legal effort to clear my name,” Mr. Craig said in a statement after Judge Porter indicated he might not rule until late next week. “The court has not issued a … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

The Consumer Behavior of Prediction Markets

Posted on September 26, 2007 by Donna Hoffman

Is anyone aware of any research (scholarly or industry-based) examining bias in prediction markets, including how consumers form judgments in prediction markets and the extent of bias in those judgments. In fact, I’d be interested in any research that looks … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Where is it that the prediction markets can make a macro difference, mister Robin Hanson?

Posted on September 26, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Prediction market consultant Robin Hanson wants to be paid according to outputs instead of inputs. Smart blog post. However, I will say this, if I may. I think it should be up to the consultant to tell the client where … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Consulting | Tagged , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Interesting information about BetFair I found out on their corporate website

Posted on September 25, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

BetFair Corporate: Corporate and Operational Overview Corporate Overview Betfair is a registered bookmaker in the UK, where it operates an online betting exchange. Betfair also operates under licences in Australia, Austria and Malta and is seeking licences elsewhere within the … Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Regulations, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Paying people according to outputs instead of inputs — Prizes vs Grants

Posted on September 25, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Tyler Cowen @ Google — Google Talks @ YouTube

Posted in Economics | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Bayesian Superbowl outlook

Posted on September 25, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

Tradesports provides probability markets in Super Bowl and Conference victories. It logically follows that a team can only win the Super Bowl if it wins its conference, i.e. p (B | A) = 1. Bayes’ Theorem provides the probablity of … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged | Leave a comment

Global Warming prediction exchange is set up.

Posted on September 25, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

Here, courtesy of Inkling Markets. It’s only $5,000 of play money per trader. But that’s still a start, so please sign up and let’s see if we can make the world a better place (i.e. do we invest more in … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , | 7 Comments

Open thread on the Consensus Point conference on prediction markets

Posted on September 25, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

If you have been to the Consensus Point conference on prediction markets, and want to say your appreciation (or vent something ), or make suggestions for another conference, feel free to publish a comment below.

Posted in Events & Meetings | 1 Comment

The Inkling explainers on prediction markets are absolutely awesome.

Posted on September 24, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

It’s a fantastic set of practical explainers that Adam Siegel has built. It is well written, and these documents aggregate well many years of experience from the standpoint of a DIY betting exchange manager. It’s really good material, which I … Continue reading →

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An idea for Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets

Posted on September 24, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

You should work out a WordPress plugin that would allow a blogging administrator to report easily on his/her blog the key facts of the day. The plugin would create a close association and interaction between the WordPress blog and one’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged , , | Leave a comment